Following the 2026 World Cup draw, which set the group-stage fixtures, a study by the Athletic has now ranked each group by difficulty. Next summer’s showpiece event, co-hosted by the USA, Canada, and Mexico, will see an expanded tournament with 48 teams taking part.

That means more nations than ever before have made the cut, spreading the talent pool and giving countries that might previously have been left out a shot at their first World Cup – this includes the likes of Curacao, Cape Verde, Jordan, and Uzbekistan.

Sadly, the chances of a so-called “group of death” are slim, but that doesn’t mean some groups aren’t trickier than others. And it certainly doesn’t mean that some historically bigger nations haven’t been handed a potential banana skin or two along the way. Each group has been ranked based on overall FIFA ratings, and the list is from easiest group to most difficult.

12

Group E

Overall FIFA Rating: 1527

After drawing against the smallest nation by population to ever qualify for a World Cup – Curacao – alongside Ivory Coast and Ecuador, Germany can feel fairly confident about progressing to the knockout stages. Julian Nagelsmann will be eager to turn the early promise shown at Euro 2024 into sustained quality across the pond.

Their toughest test will almost certainly come against Ecuador, where Die Mannschaft will be hoping Willian Pacho, Moises Caicedo, and Piero Hincapie don’t form an indestructible defence – otherwise, facing the 23rd-ranked team in the world could prove to be tricky.

11

Group G

Overall FIFA Rating: 1537

You can never quite be sure which version of Belgium you will get at an international tournament. While the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, and Jeremy Doku prove they have a lot of star power, they very rarely prove their “Golden Generation” is as good as people expect it to be. A lot of their best players are ageing now, and it seems their chances of winning something major are flatlining.

Egypt’s hopes of piecing together an underdog story rest on the shoulders of Premier League duo Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush, which should be enough firepower to see them pick up results against Iran and New Zealand to progress to the knockouts.

10

Group C

Overall FIFA Rating: 1569

Scotland’s Tartan Army taking over the Americas will be a wonderful sight, and many neutrals will be eager to see their passionate fanbase make a deep run in the tournament. However, to have any chance of advancing past the group stage for the first time in their history, they must face both Brazil – whom they have never beaten in 10 attempts – and Morocco, who reached the semi-finals at the 2022 Qatar World Cup.

A fixture against 84th-ranked Haiti should provide some respite. Even so, if there’s one group that feels like it has been misjudged in terms of difficulty, it’s Group C.

9

Group A

Overall FIFA Rating: 1580

It may not feature any of the tournament favourites, but Group A looks set to be one of the more closely contested groups following the draw. Mexico, South Korea, and South Africa will all feel they have a chance of topping the standings, with each boasting one or two household names.

While Mexico have Raul Jimenez and South Korea have Heung-min Son, South Africa, meanwhile, can call on Burnley’s Lyle Foster. This suggests some of these matches could turn into straight shootouts. They will also be joined by either Czechia, Denmark, North Macedonia, or Ireland, depending on the outcome of the playoffs, with the first two nations also boasting players that can cause an upset.

8

Group D

Overall FIFA Rating: 1585

The USA have a habit of doing things bigger and better than anyone else, no matter the endeavor. Driven by competition, they strive to be the best at everything – but they haven’t quite cracked the code in football, or “soccer,” yet. As hosts, they will be looking to change that, with Christian Pulisic and Antonee Robinson central to their efforts.

Paraguay and Australia both sit around the 30th spot in the FIFA World Rankings, making them relatively evenly matched with the Stars and Stripes, who are comfortably in 14th. Slovakia, Kosovo, Romania, or Turkey will also join them in Group D, with the latter side representing another nation that has experienced a short-lived golden generation and will be trying to cling on to the remnants of it.

7

Group H

Overall FIFA Rating: 1587

Euro 2024 winners Spain are the current favourites to win back-to-back major international tournaments, with many of their superstars from just last summer having only improved since. Lamine Yamal, Rodri, Nico Williams, Pedri, Marc Cucurella – the squad is the dictionary definition of an utter embarrassment of riches.

It’s this group of players who will do much of the heavy lifting in Group H. But Uruguay are historically strong, while Saudi Arabia’s unlikely group-stage victory over eventual winners Argentina under Herve Renard in 2022 shows they shouldn’t be underestimated. That leaves Cape Verde, who realistically have little chance of progressing – though we’ll happily be proven wrong during their first-ever World Cup appearance.

6

Group J

Overall FIFA Rating: 1588

As long as Lionel Messi is still weaving his magic, anything is possible for Argentina, who will be hoping to retain their 2022 World Cup title and make it three major honours in a row after also winning the Copa America last year. Their reign of terror suggests they should breeze through their group, though Algeria and Austria can’t be underestimated.

Algeria steamrolled their qualifying group, winning eight out of 10 matches, while Austria – under Ralf Rangnick’s steady hand – have become formidable game-to-game opponents, their well-oiled machine ensuring they are always stern competition. They even finished above France in their Euro 2024 group. Jordan, meanwhile, enter with far less known pedigree, as this will be their first-ever World Cup.

5

Group K

Overall FIFA Rating: 1592

Next summer could be the final time either Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo graces a major international tournament. For Ronaldo, who earned plenty of praise for his touchline presence during Portugal’s triumphant Euro 2016 final, there remains a quiet hope among supporters that he may one day return as the national team’s head coach.

For now, though, the focus is firmly on playing for the Nations League winners and their helping them on their path to the knockout stages. They will face World Cup newcomers Uzbekistan, while Colombia – powered by the in-form Luis Diaz – could present serious problems. Their group will also be rounded out by either DR Congo, Jamaica, or New Caledonia, depending on the playoff outcome.

4

Group B

Overall FIFA Rating: 1594

While Group C was deemed surprisingly straightforward, Group B has been labelled one of the trickier groups – though not because of spotlight-stealing superpowers. Instead, its difficulty stems from how evenly matched the teams are. Canada and Switzerland look set to scrap for top spot, while Qatar – with a population of just under three million – appear destined for a tough campaign and are widely expected to finish bottom.

That prediction becomes even more likely when considering Italy could still drop into this group, which would turn the battle for first place into a poisoned chalice. The alternative playoff entrants – Northern Ireland, Wales, or Bosnia – would each add a very different kind of challenge, but none would make reaching the knockouts any easier.

3

Group L

Overall FIFA Rating: 1611

England breathed a collective sigh of relief when they were handed Croatia, Panama, and Ghana in Group L on Friday night. But the overall FIFA ratings suggest their path to the Round of 32 may not be the straightforward stroll many optimistic fans are imagining. Croatia may be stacked with ageing stars, but their tournament know-how – polished over years of deep runs – could prove detrimental to the Three Lions’ hopes of topping the group.

Ghana, meanwhile, are no pushovers. Few Premier League players have been better this season than Antoine Semenyo, and alongside Tottenham’s electric winger Mohammed Kudus, he’ll believe he can drag the Black Stars through the early stages. In fairness, though, some reports have suggested Thomas Tuchel might be better off guiding England to a runners-up finish, depending on how the knockout bracket unfolds.