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Nigeria’s manufacturing jobs growth outpaces productivity in 2 decades

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*Most employment in MSMEs sector

By Yinka Kolawole

The manufacturing sector in Nigeria is grappling with a troubling paradox: rising employment without commensurate productivity growth, underscoring deep structural weaknesses in the country’s industrial base.

Over the past two decades, the number of Nigerians employed in manufacturing has recorded a marginal increase but this has not translated into productivity gains as value added per worker trails peer economies.

Data from the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), based on World Bank national accounts and International Labour Organisation (ILO) employment statistics show that manufacturing employment grew from about 9 per cent in the early 2000s to roughly 14 per cent in 2023. However, this expansion in factory and agro-processing jobs has not translated into higher value creation per worker.

Available statistics reveal that Manufacturing Value Added (MVA) per worker – a key measure of productivity – has remained weak and volatile over the period. From a peak of about $678 in the late 1990s, it plunged sharply to $162 in 2000. Although productivity rebounded to $661 in 2014, it has since declined again, falling to approximately $224 in 2024.

This implies that more Nigerians are working in manufacturing, but each worker is generating significantly less value than in more productive industrial economies.

Industry analysts say this trend reflects persistent challenges, including low technology adoption, inadequate infrastructure, high energy costs, limited access to finance, and weak value-chain integration – all of which constrain output per worker despite rising headcount.

Nigeria’s experience stands in sharp contrast to industrialising economies across Asia and other emerging markets, where job growth has been matched by strong productivity gains.

Comparative data highlight the gap. India’s MVA per worker stood at $1,811 in 2023, while Indonesia recorded $804. South Africa, one of Africa’s most industrialised economies, posted $1,805 – all significantly higher than Nigeria’s levels, and achieved alongside expanding manufacturing employment.

Much of the increase in Nigeria’s manufacturing employment has occurred in micro and small-scale enterprises, but these firms are constrained by limited access to modern machinery, unstable electricity, high energy costs and limited access to affordable finance. Many operate in low-technology, labour[1]intensive subsectors such as food processing, furniture, textiles, leather, etc. While these firms absorb workers, they often lack the capital and technical support needed to improve efficiency or scale up production.

Economists warn that without productivity growth, rising manufacturing employment alone cannot drive industrial transformation, boost exports, or sustain wage growth.

They stress that for Nigeria to reverse the trend, policy must shift beyond job creation to focus on mechanisation, skills development, energy reliability, and industrial innovation – factors critical to lifting output per worker and strengthening the sector’s global competitiveness.

The post Nigeria’s manufacturing jobs growth outpaces productivity in 2 decades appeared first on Vanguard News.

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FG omitted N8.8trn spending worth 2% of GDP from recent budgets — IMF

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By Yinka Kolawole, with agency report

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has disclosed that the Federal Government (FG) failed to capture public expenditure equivalent to about two per cent of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in recent national budgets, creating a mismatch between the country’s reported fiscal deficit and its actual financing needs.

IMF’s Resident Representative in Nigeria, Christian Ebeke, made the disclosure on Wednesday during a meeting with business executives in Lagos.

Vanguard Newspaper’s findings indicate that in 2025, Nigeria’s nominal GDP was N441.5 trillion. Government expenditure accounted for approximately 11.73% of this GDP. However, an additional N8.83 trillion in public spending—equivalent to about 2% of the GDP—was unrecorded in official budgets, distorting the country’s actual fiscal deficit and borrowing needs

According to Ebeke, the omission has made Nigeria’s fiscal deficit appear lower than its true borrowing requirement, as some capital expenditure was excluded from budget documents and implementation reports.

Ebeke explained that the unreported spending was largely tied to major government projects executed outside the budget framework, making it more difficult to accurately assess the country’s fiscal position and the scale of public investment.

“So far, we think that there are about two per cent of GDP of expenditure that were not reported that should be reported and should be recorded, so that this statistical discrepancy will disappear,” he said.

He noted that incomplete fiscal reporting also complicates coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, as policymakers may be working without a complete picture of the government’s financing obligations.

The IMF official said the Nigerian authorities had begun addressing the gap by revising budget legislation to accommodate previously unrecorded expenditure. However, he stressed that updated budget implementation reports would be required to fully reflect the changes.

Ebeke emphasised that greater fiscal transparency is critical to strengthening public financial management, warning that off-budget spending raises concerns over procurement practices, accountability and oversight.

His remarks come on the heels of the IMF’s latest Article IV consultation on Nigeria, which commended the Federal Government’s macroeconomic reforms for improving economic stability and boosting investor confidence.

The Fund, however, cautioned that while the reforms have stabilised the economy, they are yet to deliver broad-based improvements in living standards and remain vulnerable to external shocks, including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

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Rev360 Crash: LCCI demands CIT deadline extension, penalty waiver

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By Yinka Kolawole

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has urged the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) to immediately extend the June 30, 2026 deadline for filing Company Income Tax (CIT) returns by one month.

This, according LCCI, follows what it saw as widespread technical failures on the newly deployed Rev360 tax platform that left thousands of companies unable to comply with the statutory deadline.

In a statement, yesterday, Director General of LCCI, Dr. Chinyere Almona, argued that while some businesses waited until the final day to file their returns, the prolonged disruption of the portal on the deadline day made compliance impossible for many taxpayers.

According to her, Rev360, which was launched barely two months ago, suffered prolonged downtime on June 30, triggering login failures, validation errors and unsuccessful submissions as companies raced to meet the filing deadline.

“The failure was that of the platform, not the taxpayers,” she said, stressing that deploying a new digital tax system shortly before a major compliance deadline inevitably comes with operational challenges, particularly under heavy traffic.

Almona noted that the predictable surge in last-minute filings exposed the platform’s inadequate capacity, leaving many businesses locked out of the system at a critical period.

She called on NRS to take three immediate steps to restore confidence in the tax administration process: extend the CIT filing deadline by one month; waive all penalties for companies that attempted to file on or before June 30 but were prevented by the system outage; and urgently strengthen the capacity and stability of the Rev360 platform before the next filing cycle.

The LCCI DG said a prompt announcement of the deadline extension and penalty waiver would calm growing anxiety within the business community and prevent unnecessary disputes arising from a failure beyond taxpayers’ control.

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Power failure costs Nigeria jobs, investments — APFFLON

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By Providence Ayanfeoluwa

The Africa Association of Professional Freight Forwarders and Logistics of Nigeria (APFFLON) has challenged the Minister of Power, Joseph Tegbe, to translate recent assurances on electricity sector reforms into visible improvements in power supply.

The group maintained that Nigerians can no longer afford the economic consequences of persistent electricity failures.

In a statement signed by its National President, Otunba Frank Ogunojemite, on Tuesday, APFFLON described the electricity crisis as one of the biggest impediments to Nigeria’s economic growth, industrialisation and investment drive. According to him, no nation can build a globally competitive economy while grappling with chronic power shortages.

He stated: “No nation can build a globally competitive economy while operating in darkness. Stable electricity is not a luxury—it is the foundation upon which industries grow, investors gain confidence, jobs are created and businesses flourish.

“The cost of inadequate electricity is being paid daily by manufacturers, freight forwarders, importers, exporters and ordinary Nigerians. Businesses are shutting down, investors are relocating to countries with more reliable infrastructure, and unemployment continues to rise.”

Ogunojemite lamented that businesses across the country still rely heavily on diesel and petrol generators to sustain operations, a situation that has significantly increased production costs and weakened the competitiveness of Nigerian enterprises. He noted that the cost of doing business in Nigeria remains among the highest on the African continent, largely because of inadequate electricity supply.

“The Minister has an opportunity to leave a lasting legacy. Nigerians will judge this administration not by the number of conferences held or policies announced, but by whether electricity becomes stable, affordable and accessible”.

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