•The election that could kill Nigeria’s old political formula

By Luminous Janamike

As zoning, ethnicity and religious balancing come under pressure, presidential hopefuls increasingly search for competence over vote-delivering power brokers.

For months, Nigeria’s opposition politicians have spoken the language of coalition, unity and rescue.

They gathered in Ibadan and issued declarations. They warned against the emergence of a dominant-party system. They promised cooperation against the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC.

Yet as the January 16, 2027 presidential election draws closer, a different reality is emerging. Instead of convergence, the opposition is fragmenting.

Instead of one challenger, multiple contenders are positioning for the same office. Instead of a united anti-incumbency platform, several parties are preparing separate presidential campaigns.

At the centre of this contradiction lies an even bigger political shift. For decades, Nigerian presidential politics operated on a familiar formula built around zoning, ethnicity, religion and regional balancing. 

Winning tickets were carefully assembled to satisfy geographical and demographic expectations.

Political calculations often revolved around who could ‘deliver’ votes rather than who could help govern.

But worsening economic hardship, rising insecurity, youth frustration and growing disillusionment with political elites are beginning to challenge those assumptions.

Inside several political camps, strategists are quietly asking whether the old formula still works.

The question is no longer simply which region should produce a running mate. 

Increasingly, the debate is whether competence may now matter more than geography. And that debate could define the battle for Aso Rock in 2027.

The Old Formula is Failing

 When opposition leaders gathered in Ibadan last month and unveiled what became known as the ‘Ibadan Declaration,’ the mood was almost historic.

The gathering brought together an uneasy coalition of politicians united by one common fear, that the APC’s expanding dominance could gradually suffocate competitive politics in Nigeria.

The language was dramatic. Participants warned about an emerging ‘one-party state.’ They promised cooperation. They spoke about rescuing democracy.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar later amplified those concerns, warning that Nigeria risked sliding into dangerous political dominance if opposition forces failed to resist APC expansion.

But beneath the public choreography, familiar tensions were already brewing. Peter Obi retained his independent national appeal and youthful support base. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso still controlled a fiercely loyal northern political structure.

Rotimi Amaechi remained ambitious. Atiku himself was unwilling to abandon his long-standing presidential quest.

An opposition insider familiar with coalition discussions told Sunday Vanguard: “Everybody agreed APC is vulnerable because of hardship. The problem is that everybody also believes he should be the one to benefit from APC’s weakness.”

That contradiction soon exploded into the open. The coalition talks began fraying. Obi and Kwankwaso drifted away from aspects of the evolving arrangement. Inside ADC, Amaechi openly rejected the outcome of the party’s presidential primary after Atiku secured the ticket.

Suddenly, the opposition’s central dilemma became painfully obvious. Unity was emotionally attractive. But ambition remained politically stronger.

The Ghost of 2015

 Every serious opposition conversation eventually returns to 2015, the year disparate opposition forces buried personal ambition long enough to defeat an incumbent president for the first time in Nigeria’s democratic history.

But many analysts now believe the atmosphere is fundamentally different. In 2015, there was a single dominant opposition vehicle. Today, there are multiple ambitious centres of power.

 Cheta Nwanze, lead partner at SBM Intelligence, has repeatedly argued that fragmentation remains the opposition’s biggest weakness because APC continues to benefit whenever anti-incumbent votes scatter across several parties. That fear now hangs over virtually every coalition discussion.

A New Formula is Emerging Beyond Tribe, Religion and Geography

 Quietly, almost reluctantly, a new argument is beginning to reshape elite political calculations:  competence, governance, economic management, and policy capacity.

For decades, Nigerian vice-presidential selections largely functioned as political compensation arrangements.

Running mates were chosen primarily because they could ‘deliver’ regions, religious blocs or political structures.

Now, sections of the political class are beginning to ask a more uncomfortable question: What if Nigerians no longer care as much about symbolic balancing as politicians assume?

The country’s worsening economic realities are driving that shift. Food prices have become unbearable for many households. Unemployment remains stubbornly high. The naira crisis has battered businesses. Insecurity continues to haunt large parts of the country.

Increasingly, survival economics is overtaking identity politics.

Peter Obi has repeatedly framed leadership as a competence issue rather than an ethnic calculation.

“We cannot hire people who will give us excuses again. The time for excuses has passed. If you cannot work now, go home,” Obi declared recently while criticising the Tinubu administration.

On Workers’ Day earlier this month, Obi again urged Nigerians to demand “leadership built on competence, character, capacity, credibility and compassion rather than reward ethnic division and bad governance.”

Even former President Olusegun Obasanjo has repeatedly returned to the issue of leadership quality.

“Appointment at the leadership level should be based on competence, knowledge and experience; any other consideration will be sub-optimal,” the former president once argued while discussing governance and leadership standards.

Inside Atiku’s camp, this argument is reportedly influencing vice-presidential discussions.

A source involved in consultations around possible ticket configurations told Sunday Vanguard: “The thinking now is different. Some people are asking whether Nigeria needs another political deal or an actual governing team. Hunger is changing political psychology.”

That calculation partly explains growing interest in technocrats and governance-oriented figures rather than traditional political heavyweights.

Why South May No Longer Guarantee Votes

 One of the least discussed but most consequential calculations shaping the 2027 race concerns the changing political value of the South.

For years, vice-presidential selections were heavily influenced by assumptions about regional vote delivery. The logic appeared straightforward: pick a prominent figure from a strategic zone and electoral support would follow.

That assumption is increasingly under scrutiny. Several political strategists now privately believe that parts of the South-East have become politically consolidated around Peter Obi’s movement in ways that make traditional elite endorsements less influential than before.

The South-South presents a different challenge. Once viewed as a relatively predictable bloc, the region has become more fragmented, with competing loyalties, shifting alliances and multiple centres of influence.

A strategist involved in opposition calculations told Sunday Vanguard that one of the questions increasingly shaping internal discussions is whether a running mate from a particular region still adds significant electoral value if that region already appears firmly aligned with another candidate.

That line of thinking is quietly reshaping vice-presidential conversations.

Rather than searching exclusively for regional vote merchants, some camps are increasingly discussing competence, governance experience and economic credibility.

The implication is profound. If regions are becoming harder to deliver through elite bargains, then the old political marketplace built around geographical compensation may be losing value.

For many veteran politicians, that is an uncomfortable possibility.

The Calculation inside the Opposition

 Perhaps nowhere is this changing thinking more visible than in conversations surrounding possible vice-presidential choices.

Traditionally, opposition strategists would focus primarily on electoral geography. Which state can he deliver? Which region can she unlock? Which bloc can they mobilise?

But some political insiders say those questions are increasingly competing with a different set of considerations. Can this person help manage the economy? Can this person drive reforms? Can this person reassure investors? Can this person function as a genuine governing partner?

One source familiar with ongoing consultations put it this way: “People assume every vice-presidential discussion is about votes. That’s no longer entirely true. There is a growing recognition that whoever wins in 2027 will inherit a very difficult country. Some camps are thinking beyond election day.”

The Battle for Vice Presidency: Tinubu/Shettima: Stability or Fatigue?

 Among all projected combinations, the Tinubu-Shettima pairing remains the most institutionally stable. It preserves APC’s northern coalition. It avoids reopening succession battles inside government. It reassures parts of the North-East political establishment.

But the Muslim-Muslim debate remains unresolved beneath the surface. Critics continue to argue that the arrangement reinforces exclusion in a religiously sensitive country. Supporters counter that competence matters more than religious symbolism.

Tinubu himself recently rejected fears that APC seeks one-party dominance, insisting that democracy requires ‘vibrant and healthy competition.’

Still, APC insiders privately acknowledge concern over economic hardship and growing public frustration.

One APC source told Sunday Vanguard: “The President still has structure. But structure becomes dangerous when people are angry. That’s the calculation now.”

Atiku/Amaechi: The Ticket Everybody is Watching

 Politically, an Atiku-Amaechi combination may be one of the strongest elite pairings currently imaginable. North-East meets South-South. Experience meets aggression. Establishment reach meets anti-APC positioning.

But the relationship remains complicated. Amaechi openly rejected ADC’s presidential primary outcome, alleging widespread disenfranchisement and questioning the credibility of the process.

Yet reconciliation efforts continue quietly behind the scenes. 

 An ADC insider told Sunday Vanguard: “The truth is that everybody understands Amaechi brings strategic value. The challenge is ego management, trust and whether both sides can genuinely work together after the primary crisis.”

The bigger issue, however, may not even be Rivers politics. It may be whether Amaechi can actually help Atiku break Peter Obi’s influence across parts of the South.

Obi/Kwankwaso: The Tempting Arithmetic

 On paper, the combination looks devastating. Obi retains extraordinary youth appeal and urban support. Kwankwaso remains influential across Kano and sections of the North-West.

Electorally, the mathematics appears seductive. But politics is rarely mathematics alone. Both men command independent structures. Both possess loyal followings. Both view themselves as transformational political figures. 

The chemistry question therefore becomes central. Can two strong political brands genuinely coexist on one ticket without destabilising each other? That uncertainty continues to shadow the speculation.

Jonathan/Lamido: Nigeria’s Nostalgia Ticket?

 The Goodluck Jonathan speculation refuses to disappear. For sections of the political elite, Jonathan represents relative moderation, stability and democratic civility during a period of deep national anxiety.

A Jonathan-Sule Lamido ticket would seek to recreate a North-South bridge anchored around experience and perceived calmness.

But obstacles remain enormous. The PDP remains fractured. Younger voters may not respond strongly to political nostalgia. And Jonathan himself continues to maintain strategic ambiguity.

Still, the speculation itself reveals something important: Parts of the establishment are searching desperately for a stabilising figure.

Makinde/Bala Mohammed and Governors’ Rebellion

 The projected Makinde-Bala Mohammed combination represents a different possibility altogether, generational recalibration.

Makinde’s rising national visibility and Bala Mohammed’s northern network create an interesting equation. But they remain structurally disadvantaged against APC’s nationwide machinery.

SDP and the 

Outsider Question

 Adewole Adebayo continues positioning himself as a governance-focused outsider challenging establishment politics.

His central problem is not message but structure. Yet if competence truly becomes central to 2027, smaller ideological platforms like SDP could benefit from voter fatigue with recycled elite alignments.

Can Competence 

Beat Structure?

 For all the public anger over inflation and insecurity, APC still enters 2027 with enormous institutional advantages.

The ruling party controls most state governments. It possesses deeper financial structures. It enjoys nationwide political networks built over years of coalition management.

Most importantly, APC understands political organisation.

An opposition strategist admitted to Sunday Vanguard talks about hardship. But elections are not won by anger alone. They are won by structure, governors, money, agents and coalition discipline.”

That reality continues to haunt opposition calculations. Because while competence may be gaining political value, Nigeria’s elections are still deeply structural.

A brilliant technocrat without nationwide machinery remains vulnerable against an incumbent party with governors, local networks and institutional reach.

That is the opposition’s central dilemma. Can competence defeat political structure? Nobody is certain.

Will Nigerians Vote Tribe or Survival?

 Across markets, campuses, churches and urban neighbourhoods, a different political language is emerging.

People still discuss tribe. Religion still matters. But hardship increasingly dominates conversations; fuel, food, electricity, rent, school fees, jobs and survival.

That shift partly explains Obi’s continuing emotional connection with younger voters who increasingly frame politics around competence, accountability and economic management rather than traditional party loyalty.

Even online political conversations now increasingly revolve around governance performance rather than regional identity.

According to some political economists, the old formula assumed voters could tolerate hardship if their region was symbolically represented. But the current hardship is becoming too personal. That’s what politicians are now afraid of.

Why South May No Longer Guarantee Votes

 Perhaps the biggest quiet fear inside several camps is that regional assumptions are hardening in unexpected ways.

Many strategists now privately believe Peter Obi has already consolidated significant portions of the South-East vote psychologically.

Parts of the South-South also appear increasingly fragmented. Under those conditions, traditional ‘regional balancing’ calculations become weaker.

That partly explains the emerging attraction towards technocrats. If regions are becoming harder to fully ‘deliver,’ then competence may become more valuable than symbolic balancing. That possibility is quietly terrifying sections of the old political establishment.

The End of the Old Gatekeepers?

 The rise of social media and digital political mobilisation has also complicated traditional electoral calculations.

For decades, political influence flowed through governors, party leaders, traditional rulers and regional power brokers.

Today, millions of younger voters consume politics differently. They organise online. They mobilise through informal networks. They often distrust established political structures. That shift does not mean ethnicity and religion have disappeared from Nigerian politics. Far from it.

But it does mean traditional gatekeepers no longer possess the unquestioned influence they once enjoyed.

The phenomenon was visible during the 2023 election and remains evident in the continuing political relevance of Obi’s support base.

Many younger voters increasingly frame politics through the language of governance, accountability and economic opportunity rather than through older regional narratives.

Whether that sentiment ultimately survives the pressures of a general election remains uncertain. But it is already forcing politicians to reconsider long-held assumptions.

A Country Suspended Between Two Political Eras

 Nigeria now stands awkwardly between two competing political realities. One is still governed by the old assumptions of zoning, religion, ethnicity and elite bargaining.

The other is being shaped by hardship, youth frustration and growing demands for competent governance. Neither side has fully won. Not yet.

The old formula remains powerful. But for the first time in decades, its supremacy is being openly questioned inside the same political class that once depended on it. That alone makes 2027 different.

The deeper irony is that politicians are beginning to discuss competence precisely because the old certainties no longer appear certain.

Yet as campaigns intensify and power negotiations deepen, will those same politicians truly abandon the ethnic and regional arithmetic that has shaped Nigerian elections for decades?

Or are they merely speaking the language of competence until the real battle for power begins? That question now hangs over every coalition meeting, every vice-presidential calculation and every presidential ambition.

And perhaps it is the question that will ultimately determine whether 2027 becomes the election that killed Nigeria’s old political formula, or merely the election that briefly frightened it.

The post Intrigue as Shettima, Kwankwaso, Amaechi, Lamido emerge as potential VP appeared first on Vanguard News.

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The All Progressives Congress, APC, has named Damilola Sonayon-James as Lagos deputy governorship candidate for the 2027 general elections.

Sonayon-James, who hails from Badagry, will be the running mate to Dr Obafemi Hamzat.

Princess Sonayon-James is a politician, sustainability specialist, and business leader, widely recognised for her grassroots mobilisation and advocacy for women’s empowerment.

She serves as the Deputy State Chairman of the APC in Lagos State.

She rose to prominence as the State Assistant Woman Leader and was later elevated to the role of Deputy State Chairman of the APC in Lagos State. She has also served as a Supervisory Councillor for Agriculture and Social Services in Badagry West LCDA.

Sonayon-James holds a Master’s degree in Social Work from Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, LAUTECH, and a degree in Business and Human Resources Management from the University of Hull in the UK.

She has built a dynamic career in human resources, logistics, and sustainability, operating as CEO of DGS Chauffeurs & Logistics.

The post Lagos APC picks Sonayon-James as Hamzat’s running mate appeared first on Vanguard News.

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By Emmanuel Okogba

The presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peter Obi, has named former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as his running mate for the 2027 presidential election.

Obi announced the decision on Saturday shortly after he was officially confirmed as the party’s presidential candidate ahead of the general election.

The announcement followed the NDC’s presidential primary, where Obi emerged as the party’s flagbearer.

Obi and Kwankwaso recently joined the NDC after leaving the African Democratic Congress (ADC), citing internal disagreements and prolonged legal disputes within their former party.

The emergence of the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket is expected to alter the dynamics of the 2027 presidential race by bringing together two influential opposition politicians with strong support bases in different parts of the country.

Obi is widely regarded as popular among young voters and enjoys significant support in the South-East and parts of the South-South, while Kwankwaso remains a major political force in Kano State and across sections of Northern Nigeria through his political network.

Party leaders expressed optimism that the alliance would boost the NDC’s prospects in the next presidential election, describing the ticket as a strategic combination capable of attracting broad national support.

Further details of the party’s campaign strategy are expected to be unveiled in the coming months as preparations for the 2027 polls gather momentum.

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