A political affairs analyst and chieftain of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Dr George Agbakahi, has cautioned against proposals for political parties and private groups to establish parallel election result declaration systems.

He warned that such initiatives could undermine Nigeria’s constitutional order, fuel political instability, and threaten national security.

In a comprehensive rebuttal to recent suggestions attributed to political economist and public affairs commentator, Prof Pat Utomi, Agbakahi argued that only the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, possessed the constitutional authority to authenticate and declare election results in Nigeria.

Agbakahi, who serves as the South-East Leader of the Tinubu Support Organization, made the argument in a statement titled “Competing Electoral Verdicts and the Threat to Democratic Stability in Nigeria: The Perils of Parallel Result Declarations in Nigeria.”

According to Agbakahi, the legitimacy and stability of any democratic system depend on the existence of a single lawful authority empowered to determine electoral outcomes.

He maintained that the Nigerian Constitution and the Electoral Act clearly vest that responsibility exclusively in INEC, stressing that electoral results derive legal force only when they have been authenticated and declared through constitutionally prescribed procedures.

“The stability and legitimacy of every constitutional democracy depend fundamentally upon the existence of a single lawful authority empowered to determine and authenticate electoral outcomes,” he stated.

He argued that the electoral framework established under the Constitution and Electoral Act provides a structured chain of result collation and declaration, beginning from polling units through various levels of collation up to the national level, all under INEC’s supervision.

According to him, the legal framework neither contemplates nor authorizes any parallel institution to perform equivalent functions.

Political parties have access to results, not authority to declare winners

Agbakahi acknowledged that political parties play a significant role in monitoring elections and already possess broad access to electoral data through accredited agents stationed at polling units and collation centres.

He noted that party agents are entitled to observe vote counting, verify entries on official result sheets, receive copies of polling unit results, and monitor the collation process at various levels.

Furthermore, he pointed to technological innovations such as the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV), which provide political parties, observers, civil society organisations, and the public with enhanced access to election information.

However, he insisted that access to electoral data does not translate into legal authority to declare election outcomes.

While parties may collect, analyse, and preserve election results for verification purposes and challenge discrepancies through election petitions, he argued that the authority to officially announce winners remains solely with INEC.

“The possession of electoral data does not confer the legal authority to pronounce upon the outcome of an election,” he wrote.

Judicial review, not parallel declarations

The APC stalwart further argued that where political parties believe official results do not reflect lawful votes cast, the Constitution already provides a clear avenue for redress through election petition tribunals and appellate courts.

He stressed that democratic governance requires aggrieved actors to seek remedies through judicial processes rather than resorting to what he described as “self-help” mechanisms.

According to him, attempts by political parties to establish alternative result declaration platforms would amount to an unconstitutional usurpation of powers reserved for electoral authorities.

Agbakahi also dismissed arguments that such declarations could be justified under constitutional guarantees of freedom of expression, noting that fundamental rights are subject to lawful restrictions in the interest of public safety, public order, and democratic stability.

Parallel result-transmission systems dangerous 

Agbakahi expressed particular concern over proposals advocating real-time independent result aggregation systems operated by political parties and accessible to both domestic and international audiences.

Although such proposals are often presented as tools for enhancing transparency and accountability, he argued that they could create competing centres of electoral legitimacy.

He warned that if multiple parties begin publishing independent electoral verdicts, Nigeria’s electoral landscape could become fragmented into conflicting narratives, especially in an era increasingly influenced by artificial intelligence, machine learning, and deepfake technologies.

“If every registered political party were to establish and publicise independent result-declaration systems, Nigeria’s electoral space would inevitably become fragmented into multiple and potentially conflicting narratives of electoral truth,” he stated.

According to him, democracy requires certainty regarding who has won an election and which institution possesses the authority to make that determination.

Agbakahi further linked competing electoral verdicts to broader concerns about national security and political stability.

He described INEC’s exclusive authority as a component of what he termed “electoral sovereignty”.

Drawing parallels with the judiciary, he argued that just as individuals cannot establish private courts to issue binding judgments, political parties cannot establish alternative institutions to declare election results.

He warned that situations where multiple actors claim authority to determine election outcomes often trigger legitimacy crises that can lead to unrest, institutional breakdown, and economic instability.

To support his argument, Agbakahi cited several historical examples from Nigeria’s political experience.

He referenced the Western Region crisis of 1964–1965, which contributed to the collapse of the First Republic and eventually led to military intervention in 1966.

He also pointed to the fallout from the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election, which generated a prolonged legitimacy crisis and political instability.

The APC chieftain further recalled the violence that followed the 2011 presidential election, noting that more than 800 people were reportedly killed and tens of thousands displaced in post-election disturbances.

According to him, these incidents demonstrate that disputes over electoral legitimacy often carry significant consequences for national unity, economic growth, and public security.

African examples highlight dangers

Beyond Nigeria, Agbakahi cited experiences from other African countries where disputed election results and competing claims to victory triggered violent crises.

He highlighted the 2007–2008 post-election violence in Kenya, which resulted in over 1,100 deaths and widespread displacement.

He also referenced the 2010–2011 electoral crisis in Côte d’Ivoire and the disputed 2008 elections in Zimbabwe, arguing that fragmented electoral legitimacy frequently leads to violence, institutional disruption, and economic decline.

Given Nigeria’s size, ethnic diversity, and history of election-related tensions, he warned that similar developments could have particularly severe consequences.

Concerns ahead of 2027 elections

Looking ahead to the 2027 general elections, Agbakahi identified growing political polarisation, declining trust in public institutions, economic hardship, and the rapid spread of digital information as factors that could amplify the dangers associated with competing result-declaration systems.

He warned that partisan result platforms could encourage premature mobilisation of supporters, deepen mistrust in official institutions, and create narratives that become difficult to resolve through constitutional channels.

Such uncertainty, he said, could negatively affect investor confidence, economic planning, and perceptions of Nigeria’s political stability.

Agbakahi concluded by urging strict enforcement of existing electoral laws against unauthorised attempts to announce or simulate official election results.

He also called on INEC to continue strengthening transparency measures, including the expansion of real-time publication of polling-unit results through digital platforms.

In addition, he advocated possible legislative clarification to address emerging technological challenges while balancing freedom of expression with public order and electoral integrity.

He urged both domestic and international media organisations to clearly distinguish between official election declarations and partisan tallies to avoid amplifying narratives that could inflame tensions.

According to him, Nigeria’s democratic future depends not only on conducting credible elections but also on preserving the integrity of the institutions constitutionally empowered to validate electoral outcomes.

“The choice confronting the nation is not between transparency and opacity; it is between constitutional order and institutional fragmentation. In a constitutional democracy, electoral sovereignty must remain singular, lawful, and institutional,” Agbakahi stated.

A coalition of stakeholders from opposition political parties in Gombe State has defected to the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, declaring support for President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid and the governorship aspiration of Dr Jamil Isyaku Gwamna ahead of the 2027 elections.

The coalition comprises members of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, African Democratic Congress, ADC, and Labour Party, LP, who said their decision followed a review of the outcomes of their respective parties’ primary elections.

Speaking on behalf of the group, Prof. Sulaiman Dankande, Nura Abba, Abdullah Amtai, Dedan Mela and Murtala Usman Dukku said they had resolved to align with the APC and support Gwamna’s governorship ambition.

The coalition members were formally received into the APC by the party chairman in Gombe Local Government Area, Idris Saleh, who presented them with membership cards.

Meanwhile, former National Youth Leader of the APC, Sadiq Abubakar, has emerged as the governorship candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, in Gombe State.

Abubakar disclosed this shortly after emerging victorious in the party’s governorship primary election.

His emergence comes weeks after he resigned from the APC, citing economic challenges and dissatisfaction with the policies of the ruling party.

He said his decision to join the NDC was informed by his desire to participate in a political platform that guarantees transparent and credible primary elections.

Abubakar added that the move would provide him with an opportunity to pursue his political aspirations and serve the people of Gombe State.

Former Minister of Culture, Tourism and National Orientation, Edem Duke, has dismissed suggestions that former President Goodluck Jonathan could be drawn into active partisan politics ahead of the 2027 general election, describing such moves as misguided.

Speaking on Prime Time on Arise Television on Wednesday, Duke said Jonathan’s tenure as president remains one of the defining periods in Nigeria’s democratic history and argued that the former leader’s stature as a statesman should not be subjected to political calculations.

He expressed concern over reports linking Jonathan to a possible return to frontline politics, saying individuals promoting the idea were attempting to use the former president’s reputation and integrity for political purposes.

According to Duke, Jonathan has built a strong legacy both within Nigeria and across Africa, adding that his influence as a statesman extends beyond electoral politics.

The former minister stated that Jonathan understands the implications of the political discussions surrounding his name and is unlikely to risk his standing by pursuing another presidential ambition.

He said: “The news of the possibility of the distinguished President Goodluck ability to return to active politics is one that I take with a lot of trepidation because this is an iconic personality whose tenor as a president redefined some of the very best aspects of Nigeria.

“How then do you think that after having acquired the experience of being one of Nigeria’s most cerebral presidents, one who  has achieved such a grand level and achievement across the continent, would now be dragged into what I see as a political lottery by people who should actually work harder to ensure that he can sustain and expand the perimeters of his influence as a statesman, not just to Nigeria, Africa, but globally.

“I think it is unfortunate that people who have not yet been able to put their house in order are now assuming that they can trade the integrity and the overwhelming personality and image of a former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan as perhaps a pawn on the political dashboard.

“This is where I have my trepidations, and I believe that President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan has his senses and his head firmly fixed, and he understands that a number of these issues that are being raised around him.

“I do know that what he stands to gain as a former president is far beyond risking another four years of aspiration.”