By Luminous Jannamike

The ADC’s leadership crisis is heading to the Supreme Court, but the bigger battle may not be legal. As the opposition coalition fights over control of its structures, time is running out to convince Nigerians it is ready for the 2027 elections.

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By the time the Supreme Court finally settles the battle over the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the legal questions may have been answered. The political damage, however, may already have been done.

That is the irony confronting Nigeria’s most prominent opposition coalition.

For months, the conversation around the ADC has revolved around court orders, rival factions, congresses and constitutions; not policies, campaigns or governance. Every judgment has produced another appeal. Every appeal has prolonged uncertainty. And in politics, uncertainty can be as damaging as defeat.

That is why last Monday’s Court of Appeal judgment is about much more than David Mark or Dumebi Kachikwu factions. It has become a test of whether an opposition coalition can remain electorally viable while fighting for control of itself. 

The Judgment that Changed the Conversation

In a split two-to-one decision, the Court of Appeal upheld an earlier Federal High Court judgment restraining the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) from recognising state congresses organised by committees appointed by the David Mark-led National Working Committee, NWC.

The appellate court agreed that under the ADC constitution, elected state executive committees, not a national working committee, possess the authority to conduct state congresses. It equally affirmed that the congresses and subsequent national convention organised by the David Mark leadership amounted to a nullity because they allegedly violated an earlier court order. 

The Mark camp has appealed to the Supreme Court, maintaining that the judgment neither removed its leadership nor invalidated candidates already uploaded to the INEC portal.

Legally, therefore, the dispute is far from over. Politically, it may just be beginning.

What the Supreme Court Will Really Decide

On Arise TV’s The Morning Show, constitutional lawyer Liborous Oshoma stripped away the politics and reduced the dispute to one decisive question.

“They must present the facts showing that the caretaker committee (appointed by Mark-led NWC) was subsequently suspended and did not conduct the congresses or primaries,” he stated. 

According to Oshoma, the burden now rests on the ADC to prove that the disputed congresses were conducted by lawful party structures rather than the caretaker committee.

If it cannot, he warned, the implications could extend beyond state executives.

“Yes, the presidential ticket is threatened by this court judgment… The truth will be laid bare, but time might not be on their side,” he cautioned. 

That final observation may be the most significant. Time, not merely law, has become the opposition’s greatest adversary.

Beyond the Courtroom

The legal arguments are relatively straightforward. The political consequences are not.

The David Mark NWC currently enjoys INEC recognition for candidates already uploaded onto the commission’s portal, including the Atiku Abubakar/Rotimi Amaechi presidential ticket and hundreds of legislative candidates. The Kachikwu faction, despite claiming legitimacy over party state structures, does not control those submissions. 

That creates a practical dilemma. Suppose the Supreme Court eventually upholds the Appeal Court judgment. The faction recognised as controlling the party structure may still confront the reality that another faction submitted candidates to INEC months earlier.

Conversely, should the apex court overturn the judgment, the Mark-led coalition may retain legal authority but still have to repair months of internal distrust and organisational paralysis. Either way, rebuilding confidence may prove harder than winning the case.

The Politics Nobody Wants to Discuss

Opposition politicians have repeatedly alleged that the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, benefits from keeping rival parties trapped in endless litigation. Those allegations remain political claims; there is no verified evidence that the judiciary or INEC is acting at the direction of the government.

Yet one fact is difficult to ignore. Lengthy legal disputes consume energy, divide party elites, discourage donors and confuse supporters.

Whether caused by political strategy or self-inflicted organisational failures, the result can be remarkably similar: an opposition that spends more time in court than on the campaign trail.

Ironically, the courts may eventually clear every legal obstacle. But if public confidence has already eroded, legal victory may arrive too late to translate into electoral success.

Lessons from History

Nigerian politics offers enough precedents to make every political party wary of unresolved internal disputes.

The PDP’s prolonged Sheriff-Makarfi leadership crisis consumed valuable time before judicial certainty eventually emerged ahead of the 2019 presidential election. The APC’s failure to conduct valid primaries in Zamfara also cost it an election it had effectively won, after the Supreme Court nullified its victories in 2019.

The lesson is consistent. Political parties rarely lose only because opponents are stronger. Sometimes they lose because internal disputes become more important than the election itself. That is the danger staring the ADC in the face.

Three Possible Outcomes

The first scenario is that the Supreme Court affirms the Appeal Court. That could raise difficult questions about disputed congresses and trigger fresh political negotiations over party structures.

The second is that it overturns the judgment, restoring legal certainty to the Mark-led NWC and allowing the coalition to concentrate on campaigning.

The third, and perhaps most consequential, is delay. If the final judgment comes too close to critical electoral deadlines, whichever faction prevails may inherit a party that has lost precious time, momentum and public confidence.

For ordinary Nigerians, the issue extends beyond one opposition party. Democracy depends not only on competitive elections but also on credible political alternatives.

If opposition parties spend the months before an election litigating over who controls the party instead of persuading voters why they deserve power, the greatest casualty may not be the ADC. It may be the quality of electoral competition itself.

As the Supreme Court prepares to hear the case, the legal battle will continue. But the larger political question already hangs over Nigeria’s democracy: Can a party win its case in court after losing the confidence of the electorate?