By Udeme Akpan, Energy Editor

Nigeria will maintain its current crude oil production strategy after seven members of the OPEC+ alliance agreed to increase their combined oil output by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September 2026, a decision aimed at preserving stability in the global oil market.

The decision was reached during a virtual meeting on Sunday involving Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, the countries implementing additional voluntary production cuts announced in April and November 2023.

Nigeria was not part of the meeting because it is not participating in the additional voluntary production adjustment arrangement, meaning the latest output increase does not affect its production plans.

Instead, Nigeria remains subject to its production target under the broader Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) agreed by OPEC and its allies.

In a communiqué issued after the meeting, the seven countries said they had “reviewed global market conditions and outlook” before deciding to increase production.

According to the statement, “In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from the additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023.”

The increase, they said, will take effect in September 2026.

The producers added that the latest adjustment “will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation” for previous overproduction.

They reaffirmed “their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).”

The countries also “confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024.”

For Nigeria, the decision means there is no change to its production obligations, allowing Africa’s largest oil producer to continue efforts to increase crude output within its OPEC allocation.

The country has been working to raise production through enhanced pipeline security, reduced crude oil theft, increased upstream investments and the reactivation of idle oil fields.

The latest OPEC+ decision is also expected to provide some comfort for Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy, as the alliance continues to pursue a gradual and coordinated supply policy designed to prevent sharp swings in international crude prices.

Stable oil prices remain critical to Nigeria’s fiscal position, with crude exports accounting for the bulk of the country’s foreign exchange earnings and a significant portion of government revenue.

Although the seven producers agreed to increase supply, analysts believe the relatively modest adjustment signals that OPEC+ remains cautious about the pace of production growth amid uncertainties surrounding global demand and geopolitical developments.

The statement emphasised that the participating countries “will continue to hold monthly meetings to review market conditions,” underscoring their readiness to respond quickly to changes in the global oil market.

The next meeting of the seven OPEC+ countries is scheduled for September 6, 2026, when they will assess market conditions and determine whether further production adjustments are necessary.

For Nigeria, which is targeting higher crude output to strengthen revenues and meet its 2026 budget assumptions, the latest decision offers room to pursue production growth while benefiting from OPEC+’s continued efforts to maintain a stable global oil market.

Meanwhile, Nigeria and other key members of the OPEC+ alliance have reaffirmed their commitment to sustaining stability in the global oil market, while warning that attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to international maritime routes pose significant threats to global energy security and crude oil supplies.

The position was contained in the communiqué issued after the 67th Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), held via videoconference on Monday.

The committee, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Algeria and Venezuela, reviewed developments in the international oil market and stressed the importance of continued cooperation under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), the framework through which OPEC and its allies coordinate production policies.

… Despite N11.1trn July gain

By Peter Egwuatu 

Nigeria’s stock market reversed course last week as widespread profit-taking erased N1.261 trillion from investors’ portfolios, ending the week in negative territory after a sustained rally.

The decline followed renewed selling pressure across major banking, industrial and consumer goods stocks as investors cashed in on the strong gains recorded in recent weeks.

Data from the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) showed that market capitalisation fell by N1.261 trillion to close at N158.326 trillion, compared with N159.587 trillion in the preceding week.

Similarly, the benchmark NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declined by 0.83 per cent to 245,283.68 points from 247,357.40 points, reflecting the broad-based weakness across the market.

Despite the weekly setback, the market still posted a robust monthly performance, with investors gaining N11.109 trillion in July. Market capitalisation climbed from N147.217 trillion at the end of June to N158.326 trillion by the close of July, underlining the strength of the rally before last week’s correction.

The sharp monthly appreciation encouraged many investors to lock in profits, particularly in stocks that had recorded significant price gains.

Market breadth also deteriorated during the week, signalling a stronger bearish sentiment. Only 33 stocks advanced, down from 57 in the previous week, while 56 equities declined, compared with 38 losers a week earlier. A total of 58 stocks closed unchanged, up from 51 recorded previously.

Analysts at InvestData Consulting Limited attributed the downturn largely to profit-taking in highly capitalised and actively traded stocks, especially within the banking sector.

“The emergence of fresh 52-week lows amid the broader market decline suggests that some investors are becoming increasingly cautious about individual stocks, even as the overall NGX remains significantly higher on a year-to-date basis,” the firm said.

Looking ahead, the analysts expect cautious trading to persist in the near term.

“The NGX enters the new trading week with a cautious short-term outlook following last week’s broad-based selloff. Profit-taking is likely to remain a dominant feature of the market as investors continue to lock in gains from the strong rally recorded so far this year,” they added.

Nigeria needs a coordinated industrial growth strategy, beyond macroeconomic reforms, to unlock investment in the manufacturing sector and accelerate economic expansion.

Chief Executive Officer of CFG Advisory, Mr. Tilewa Adebajo, stated this in an interview on CNBC Africa. He noted that reforms such as exchange rate liberalisation and broader macroeconomic adjustments should be regarded as the foundation for growth rather than the destination. 

Adebajo argued that without deliberate policies to boost production, infrastructure and industrial investment, Nigeria would struggle to achieve sustainable economic transformation.

According to him, the current growth rate of about four per cent is insufficient for an economy with Nigeria’s population and development needs. He said the country needs to consistently grow between eight and 10 per cent annually to significantly improve productivity, create jobs and raise living standards.

He noted that manufacturing remains constrained by structural challenges, including high financing costs, inadequate infrastructure and the absence of a long-term industrial development framework.

“Reforms alone are not the magic bullet. We need growth strategies that remove the structural impediments limiting productivity and investment,” Adebajo said.

He warned that government borrowing and rising debt-service obligations are crowding out private sector investment by keeping interest rates elevated. With Treasury bill yields remaining attractive and commercial lending rates reaching as high as 35 per cent for some businesses, manufacturers are finding it increasingly difficult to finance long-term expansion.

According to him, fiscal discipline must complement monetary, trade and industrial policies to create a more competitive environment for productive investment.

Adebajo also called for a pipeline of large-scale bankable projects capable of stimulating industrial growth. 

Beyond major investments such as the Dangote Refinery and Nigeria LNG Train 7, he said Nigeria needs fresh investments in power, transport infrastructure, agro-processing and manufacturing clusters to deepen industrial capacity.

He urged policymakers to leverage Nigeria’s large domestic market and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to attract export-oriented manufacturers. 

Adebajo asserted that Nigeria’s reform programme will ultimately be judged not by macroeconomic stability alone, but by its ability to translate policy reforms into stronger manufacturing investment, higher productivity and sustained economic growth.