With the 2026 World Cup in the history books, international football is already looking forward to the European Championships in two years’ time.

The tournament will be hosted in the UK and Ireland, with England expected to be among the favourites on home soil. It’s also a great opportunity for the likes of Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to give a good account of themselves.

There will be fierce competition to claim the prestigious international trophy, with world champions Spain looking to retain their European crown. France and Norway put in brilliant performances at the World Cup, while Germany and Italy could be rejuvenated with new managers.

But who is the most likely to come out on top when all is said and done? Well, Casinolyze have predicted exactly that using a supercomputer that simulated the competition 30,000 times to come up with the most probable outcome.

England Not Expected to Win Euro 2028

England’s Harry Kane via REUTERS/Hannah Mckay

Scotland, Wales and both Ireland sides are among the least likely of the 24 teams included in this simulation to claim the trophy. Given their history in major competitions, it’s not a huge surprise. However, the home nations are all given less than a 20% chance of even reaching the Round of 16.

Nations like Hungary, Serbia, Poland and Ukraine are among several countries that have less than a 1% chance of lifting the trophy after failing to even qualify for the World Cup this summer.

Surprisingly, 12 teams are rated as having a better chance than Norway. That’s despite Erling Haaland and co advancing further than the majority of European nations at the World Cup.

The 2020 winners, Italy, have only been given a marginally better chance than Belgium, Croatia and Switzerland. It’s quite the fall from grace considering none of those countries have ever won the title, but are almost as likely as a major nation like Italy.

At the top end, France are the marginal favourites with a 14.5% chance of winning. Spain (14%) and England (13%) are the next most likely nations. Jurgen Klopp’s Germany, a potentially Cristiano Ronaldo-less Portugal and the Netherlands make up the chasing pack.

Manchester United have not yet completed their midfield rebuild, and a new name has now emerged as a potential target.

The Reds have completed four deals so far this summer, with Andrey Santos and Youri Tielemans joining for a combined £85m in midfield, while youngster Tynan Thompson has arrived from Tottenham in a £4m deal, and goalkeeper Karl Darlow has arrived on a free transfer.

But the club are still pushing to make more additions to their squad, especially in midfield, and with a number of targets being linked, it has emerged that there is a deal to be done for one of the players reportedly on their list.

Man Utd Eyeing Kees Smit Deal

According to a report by freelance journalist Shaun Connolly, Man Utd are keen on a deal to sign AZ Alkmaar central midfielder Kees Smit this summer.

Smit, who has been described as ‘special’, has emerged as one of the most impressive midfield prospects in Europe over the last 12 months, and is expected to leave the Eredivisie side as a result of the interest in his services.

United are keen to bring in midfield reinforcements, and according to Connolly, the Reds ‘greatly admire’ the young Netherlands star. It’s also reported that there is a belief that ‘a deal is there to be done this summer’, although it is unclear if Man Utd will actively push to bring him to Old Trafford.

Smit has been heavily linked with the likes of Newcastle, Liverpool, and Real Madrid in recent times, while United legend Rio Ferdinand described him as someone that the club cannot allow to join a rival because of his potential.

The youngster would be a welcome addition at Old Trafford as they look to put more control into their side, but at just 20-years-old it means he may struggle for regular game time behind Tielemans, Santos, and Kobbie Mainoo ahead of him.

Smit Is a Future Superstar

Man Utd have a clear idea of what they want in midfield, and in reality, it’s fair to say that Smit probably doesn’t fit that mould right now.

Smit is someone who is at his best with the ball at his feet and controlling a game, while United are pushing to find someone more defensive-minded who can win the ball back and give it to the likes of Mainoo and Tielemans to control the game.

But Smit is a player who is so good, and has such a high ceiling, that not signing him now could mean you miss out in the future too. It’s not often that players like him are available, and this is a moment where United must consider getting a deal done in advance to set themselves up for the future.

Aston Villa have been one of the busiest clubs in this summer’s transfer window and their business isn’t stopping anytime soon.

Johan Manzambi arrived as Morgan Rogers’ replacement amid the England attacker’s British transfer record £117 million switch to Stamford Bridge. The Villans beat Newcastle United to the Swiss midfielder after paying a club record £59.5 million, including add-ons.

The West Midlands outfit then swooped for Joao Gomes, forking out £38m to sign the Brazilian from Wolverhampton Wanderers. That came after Youri Tielemans made a surprise move to Manchester United after a £35m release clause was triggered.

Aston Villa Remain Keen on Palhinha

via Reuters

Villa had been planning to reinforce in midfield due to Amadou Onana’s injury. The Belgian will miss next season after rupturing his ACL while on international duty at the World Cup.

A potential option to help address Onana’s absence is Joao Palhinha, who spent last season on loan at Tottenham Hotspur. The Lilywhites opted not to sign the Portuguese midfielder permanently, and he’s headed back to Bayern Munich.

Palhinha is deemed surplus to requirements at Bayern, and he missed out on a move to Spurs due to the Bundesliga giants insisting on a €30m option to buy. They have had trouble offloading the player at that price, and German outlet BILD (via iMiaSanMia) reports that it could mean they reconsider their valuation.

The report states that the Bavarians could ‘significantly lower their asking price’ or ‘end up agreeing to a loan.’ Villa’s interest is mentioned, and it’s claimed that the Germans’ hopes hinge on them making a move for the 31-year-old.

Palhinha, branded “unbelievable”, impressed at Spurs despite their battle against relegation, and he scored the winner in a 1-0 win over Everton on the final day of the season. He is now waiting for a resolution as he doesn’t feature in Vincent Kompany’s plans.

Palhinha is a Perfect Short-Term Fix

via Reuters

A move to Portugal is off the cards because of the asking price, although a loan deal is desired. Benfica and Sporting CP are the two clubs looking to take Palhinha back to his homeland.

Palhinha has proven Premier League experience and, given his age, will probably be willing to be a player who Unai Emery rotates. That helps the manager deal with Onana’s injury in the short term but also adds a quality holding midfielder to his squad.

Bayern’s asking price is the main issue, but if this is lowered, Villa should swoop for the Portuguese star. He earned a move to the Allianz Arena after a superb spell at Fulham but couldn’t replicate his performances in the Bundesliga.