Sitting in seventh place and only one defeat so far, not many at the start of the season had Sunderland to be the best performing promoted side after five games.

Sunderland’s context coming into the Premier League was not the best. They limped into the play-offs with five defeats and just one goal in the final six games of the regular Championship season.

They then required late goals against Coventry and Sheffield United in those play-off triumphs, with some good fortune needed in their Wembley win over the Blades.

Add in losing Jobe Bellingham and play-off hero Tom Watson in the transfer market, and you would have been forgiven for putting the Black Cats in your bottom three for Premier League predictions, perhaps even in 20th place. But then again, you are now starting to feel silly.

Sunderland are currently making relatively easy work of the Premier League and few are considering them in the survival hunt right now. Their draw with Unai Emery’s Aston Villa – playing with 10 players for over an hour – epitomised the fight the Black Cats possess.

But how have Regis Le Bris’ side put themselves into this situation, with Nottingham Forest the next team to test their mettle on Saturday night, live on Sky Sports?

Big spending is paying off

The first thing Sunderland did to prepare themselves for the Premier League was quite simply: go for it in the transfer window. The Black Cats had an unprecedented window for a promoted side, spending £183.4m on new players.

That is the most out of any side promoted from the Championship since the 2021/22 season – and even £25m more than Nottingham Forest’s incredible spree which saw them acquire 23 new players. Sunderland’s net spend of £141.4m was even more than double the size of European champions Paris Saint-Germain.

Staggering Sky Sports data from earlier in the summer stated that newly-promoted clubs would need to spend at least five times the average Premier League net spend in a summer window in order to 100 per cent guarantee survival.

Given Premier League clubs splashed the cash and averaged £67m of net spend between them, a £335m spend was always going to be unlikely for the Black Cats. However, their £182m spree was between two and three times the average net spend, which gives them a two-thirds chance of survival.

That spend added to the Premier League-level quality Sunderland had obtained during their Championship days, partly due to the positive start to their promotion season last term.

For example, Enzo Le Fee was brought in as a coup last January due to the likelihood of Premier League football coming back to the club. Wilson Isidor‘s loan being made permanent was helped by the same probable achievement.

And it is not just the amount of money spent, but who they invested in. Particularly in defence.

Investing in the defence

One common Achilles heel among the newly-promoted sides in recent seasons was a lack of defensive solidity. All six promoted sides in the previous two Premier League campaigns conceded 78 goals or more in their relegation campaigns, which is far too many.

Previous top-flight seasons have shown that conceding 60 goals or less gives you an 83 per cent chance of survival – and Sunderland are well on course to meet those targets.

In fact, if they continue their current defensive rate, they will let in just 30 goals come the end of the 38-game season. It is very early days still, but Sunderland have set some early standards.

A key part of that is their defensive reinforcements, namely in the form of Nordi Mukiele and Omar Alderete. Both players were bought in separate £12m deals from PSG and Getafe respectively – but have been crucial to the early-season promise at the Stadium of Light.

Mukiele ranks top for clearances made per 90, ranking one place higher than Liverpool centre-back Virgil van Dijk, while Alderete is joint-third for interceptions.

There is another key defensive performer in Trai Hume, who sits alongside Mukiele in the top 10 players for ground-duel success so far this season.

Sunderland are one of only two clubs with two players in this top-10 shortlist. The other is Crystal Palace who are on a 17-game unbeaten run and have the division’s joint-best defence along with Arsenal.

Roefs is on fire and the importance of Xhaka

But perhaps two of the most important signings Sunderland made this summer were in the other parts of their spine.

Goalkeeper Robin Roefs has been a revelation, with his save percentage of 77.8 per cent only bettered by the first-choice goalkeepers of Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs and defensively-strong Palace.

The chanting of the ‘Roefs is on fire’ just adds to the already raucous Stadium of Light atmosphere, with their unbeaten home start another key part of their early-season impact.

The other key signing was Granit Xhaka, who was a surprise buy but so far it has been nothing short of a smart one. It continues the trend of newly-promoted sides targeting Premier League experience over quality, with Burnley’s move for Kyle Walker and Luton’s Ross Barkley signing similar examples.

The decision to immediately install him as club captain underlined the need for leadership in a young squad – but nobody quite expected him to have the impact on the ball he has had.

Xhaka ranks eighth for aerial duels won in the Premier League this season, showing how his physical prowess from his Arsenal days has not diminished. He is still capable of delivering at this level.

But the Swiss midfielder has also provided the crucial moments in the final third, most notably for two important Isidor goals at the Stadium of Light.

He put in the pinpoint cross in the dying moments for Isidor to head home the winner against Brentford. Xhaka’s sumptuous headed assist for the striker’s leveller against Aston Villa also demonstrated his composure in big moments.

Those two Xhaka involvements alone have earned Sunderland three extra points within the space of two home games. How crucial could they be come the end of the season?

Efficiency over dominance

Le Bris has done well to stabilise Sunderland in defence and midfield – but can they get the goals to stay in the division?

Historical Premier League data says scoring at least 43 goals gives you an 88 per cent chance of staying in the Premier League. Sunderland are currently on a rate where they will score 45 goals.

A lot was made about the style of play that newly-promoted sides adopted in the last two Premier League seasons – most notably Burnley and Southampton, who stuck with their possession-heavy football and were found out.

Sunderland are helped by the fact they were not a possession-heavy team in their Championship promotion season – which saw them average just 48 per cent of the ball. They are used to being shy of the ball, but still manage to find chances.

It has created a style of play that prioritises efficiency over sustained dominance. Sunderland rank sixth in the Premier League for forward-passing percentage this season – when they get the ball, they move through the lines quickly.

And there is a ‘less-is-more’ trend emerging in Sunderland’s season – the less of the ball they have, the more chances they create. The Black Cats managed 14 shots against Villa despite having 29 per cent possession with 10 men. They had 10 shots of the ball against West Ham despite 38 per cent possession.

But when they had nearly 60 per cent of the play at Burnley, they had just nine attempts and lost 2-0. It was a similar story at Crystal Palace where they had more possession than in their home win over West Ham, but had six shots.

Sunderland have become accustomed to suffering off the ball, in the same way their fans have had to deal with suffering up and down the English pyramid over the past 20 years. Can they find that stability, after a positive opening five games?

Watch Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland live on Sky Sports’ Saturday Night Football on Saturday from 5pm; kick-off 5.30pm.