Business
Nigeria’s 2026 outlook brightens, but oil, FX and policy shocks still pose risks —PwC

By Peter Egwuatu
Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2026 shows encouraging signs of stability and renewed business confidence, but experts at PricewaterhouseCooper, PwC, warned that the gains remain fragile and highly exposed to oil market volatility, foreign exchange pressures and policy-induced shocks.
This was the consensus at the PwC and Businessday Executive Roundtable, on Nigeria’s 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook, held in Lagos, where optimism was tempered by caution over unresolved structural and geopolitical risks.
In his opening remarks at the roundtable themed “Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2026: The Executive Playbook for Growth, Resilience, and Efficiency”, Sam Ado, Regional Senior Partner, PwC West Africa, said global and Nigerian CEOs are now operating with what he described as “two lenses.” One lens, a microscope, focuses on immediate threats such as geopolitics, cyber risks and global instability, while the second, a telescope, looks at long-term opportunities driven by technology, artificial intelligence and innovation.
Applying this framework to Nigeria, Ado highlighted notable macroeconomic improvements.
Inflation, he said, has eased to 14.45 per cent, down from levels that previously classified Nigeria as a high-inflation environment.
He noted that the local currency, Naira, has strengthened to around N1,436/$, while foreign exchange reserves have climbed above $45 billion, offering some buffer against external shocks.
He stated further: “These outcomes reflect disciplined monetary policy and a degree of stability many once thought impossible.”
However, he cautioned that stability should not be mistaken for success.
He stated: “Stability is not victory. It is only a platform on which sustainable growth must be built.
”PwC’s 29th Global CEO Survey (Nigeria perspective) reflects this renewed confidence, with 90 per cent of Nigerian CEOs expecting economic improvement in 2026, up from 64 per cent last year. About 56 per cent are very confident about revenue growth, significantly higher than the global average.”
Ado stressed that risks persist, particularly on the fiscal front, adding: “Despite modest revenue gains, debt servicing is projected to consume about 45 per cent of federal revenue, while the fiscal deficit remains high at approximately N24 trillion.”
He identified four priorities for Nigerian businesses in 2026: strategic reinvention; technology, data and AI; cybersecurity and trust; and sustainability and peace.
On the broader development context, Frank Aigbogun, Publisher of BusinessDay, highlighted the role of business leadership in supporting long-term development. He noted that Nigeria can fund only a fraction of the infrastructure required for growth, and emphasised that strengthening tax compliance and constructive civic engagement is essential.
While, providing a macro risk assessment, Olusegun Zaccheaus, Partner, Chief Economist and Strategy Head, West African Market at PwC, warned that security challenges remain a major downside risk and are unlikely to be resolved in 2026, especially as the year precedes national elections. He noted that Nigeria continues to face transnational threats that extend beyond domestic control.”
On monetary policy, Zaccheaus expressed cautious optimism, saying relative stability is expected to continue into 2026.
“However, interest rates are unlikely to fall sharply despite easing inflation, as authorities remain concerned about liquidity pressures typically associated with election cycles.
”While investment sentiment is improving, he cautioned that consumer recovery will lag overall economic growth, as the benefits of stability take time to translate into jobs and household income. Sectoral performance will also remain uneven, with services and oil and gas expected to outperform manufacturing and import-dependent sectors” he said.
Zaccheaus further warned that Nigeria’s outlook remains vulnerable to oil production shocks, FX disruptions and geopolitical trade tensions, particularly in an increasingly fragmented global economy. Any major disruption to oil output or prices, he said, could undermine budget assumptions and FX availability.
From a fiscal sustainability and tax perspective, Kenneth Erikume, PwC Partner and Tax Reporting & Strategy Leader, said Nigeria’s long-standing challenge of expenditure outpacing revenue remains unresolved. Delays in capital expenditure releases in 2025, he noted, pushed projects forward and weakened economic momentum.
“With public debt estimated at N152 trillion, Erikume said borrowing would continue in 2026, but stressed that revenue mobilisation through tax administration efficiency, data and technology is now critical”.
The post Nigeria’s 2026 outlook brightens, but oil, FX and policy shocks still pose risks —PwC appeared first on Vanguard News.
Business
NPA backs Abuja MoU on regional maritime cooperation
By Godwin Oritse
Managing Director
of the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), Dr. Abubakar Dantsoho, has expressed support for the Abuja Memorandum of Understanding (Abuja MoU) Capacity Building Programme as a major step towards strengthening maritime governance and enhancing Port State Control across West and Central Africa.
Speaking at the programme’s launch in Abuja, Dantsoho reaffirmed the NPA’s commitment to initiatives that promote maritime safety, security and regulatory compliance in the region.
He said: “The Capacity Building Programme is designed to equip maritime administrations with the knowledge, skills and technical capacity required to implement Port State Control measures effectively, ensure greater compliance with international maritime conventions and improve the overall performance of member states within the Abuja MoU region.”
Dantsoho commended the Chairman of the Abuja MoU, Hon. Ebrima Sillah, Minister of Transport, Works and Infrastructure of The Gambia, for his leadership in advancing regional maritime cooperation.
He also praised the Vice-Chairman of the Abuja MoU and Nigeria’s Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, as well as the Secretariat led by Captain Sunday Umoren.
According to him, “Their dedication and exemplary leadership have continued to drive the objectives of the Memorandum of Understanding on Port State Control for the West and Central African Region.”
Expressing confidence in the initiative, Dantsoho said: “The strengthened collaboration among member states will enhance the effectiveness of Port State Control inspections, improve maritime safety standards and contribute significantly to the sustainable development of the maritime sector across the Abuja MoU region.”
The programme is expected to strengthen institutional capacity, improve compliance with international maritime standards and deepen regional cooperation among member states responsible for Port State Control.
Business
Stock market: Investors lose N13.3trn in June amid profit-taking
•FTSE Russell delays Nigeria’s Frontier Market status over T+1 concerns
By Peter Egwuatu
The Nigerian stock market ended June on a bearish note, with investors losing a whopping N13.3 trillion in the value of their investments listed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) on a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the highest monthly loss recorded in the first six months of 2026.
Despite the sharp decline in June, equity investors recorded a gain of N44.8 trillion in the first half of 2026 (H1’26), reflecting improved capital gains.
Market analysts attributed the bearish performance in June to sustained profit-taking in blue-chip and fundamentally sound stocks, which overshadowed bargain hunting and extended the market’s recent corrective trend.
They noted that investors remained cautious after the impressive rally recorded in May, opting to lock in gains across key sectors amid continued portfolio rebalancing ahead of the half-year earnings season.
Analysis of month-on-month trading showed that the NGX market capitalisation, which represents the total value of equities listed on the Exchange, closed the last trading day of June at N147.217 trillion, down from N160.508 trillion in May 2026, indicating massive sell-offs by investors.
Similarly, the NGX All-Share Index (ASI), another major market performance indicator that measures the cumulative price movement of listed equities, declined by 8.4 per cent to close at 229,419.18 points, compared with 250,385.47 points recorded in May 2026.
The renewed wave of profit-taking came despite the country’s improving macroeconomic indicators and expectations that listed companies with strong fundamentals would deliver resilient half-year results. Investors appeared to adopt a more selective approach, rotating funds into defensive stocks while taking profits in equities that had posted significant capital appreciation since the beginning of the year.
However, in H1’26, the NGX market capitalisation rose by N47.841 trillion to close at N147.217 trillion, from N99.376 trillion recorded at the end of trading in December 2025. Similarly, the NGX ASI surged by 47.4 per cent to close at 229,419.18 points, from 155,613.03 points recorded at the end of December 2025.
Meanwhile, FTSE Russell, a global provider of stock market indices and data analytics, yesterday stated that it had placed Nigeria’s planned reclassification to Frontier Market status under further review.
The global index provider disclosed the development in a statement, citing concerns over the country’s transition to a T+1 settlement cycle, which allows trades to settle one business day after execution. According to the statement, the pause in Nigeria’s planned status upgrade would allow FTSE Russell to examine the implications of the transition for foreign investors.
“Further to the FTSE Equity Country Classification March 2026 Interim Announcement, which confirmed the reclassification of Nigeria from Unclassified to Frontier Market status from September 2026, FTSE Russell announces that the reclassification of Nigeria is under further review.
“A requirement to prefund equity trades is deemed a negative for the ‘Settlement Cycle (DvP)’ criterion, which is one of the five core FTSE Quality of Markets criteria required for attaining Frontier Market status within the FTSE Equity Country Classification scheme.
“Consequently, the reclassification of Nigeria is under further review to assess the implications of the transition to a T+1 settlement cycle for international institutional investors.”
FTSE Russell said it would provide an update on Nigeria’s potential reclassification to Frontier Market status by the end of August 2026.
Business
FCCPC to marketers: Cut petrol prices or face sanctions
The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has warned oil marketers against exploiting consumers, saying the current retail prices of petrol do not reflect the sharp decline in global crude oil prices.
In a statement issued on Sunday, the Commission said its ongoing surveillance of the downstream petroleum sector had uncovered indications of consumer exploitation, as recent reductions in petrol prices by refiners, depot operators and marketers remain insignificant despite the sustained fall in crude oil prices.
According to the FCCPC, global crude oil prices have dropped to about 73 dollars per barrel following the ceasefire between the United States and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The agency noted that crude prices had climbed to about 120 dollars per barrel at the height of tensions in the Middle East between April and May, prompting a swift increase in petrol pump prices across Nigeria.
The Commission observed that while crude oil prices have now returned to levels recorded in February, retail fuel prices have remained relatively high.
It recalled that petrol sold for between ₦800 and ₦900 per litre in February, but rose sharply to between ₦1,350 and ₦1,500 per litre during the period of heightened geopolitical tensions. Despite the subsequent drop in crude oil prices, petrol is still being sold at an average of about ₦1,200 per litre, while some local refiners have fixed ex-depot prices between ₦1,025 and ₦1,075 per litre.
The Commission acknowledged that domestic fuel prices are influenced by several factors, including refining costs, foreign exchange fluctuations, logistics, financing and distribution expenses. However, it maintained that consumers should benefit from lower crude oil prices through competitive market pricing.
Executive Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the FCCPC, Tunji Bello, said although the Commission does not regulate petrol prices in Nigeria’s deregulated downstream petroleum sector, it has a statutory responsibility to ensure consumers are protected from unfair and exploitative practices.
“To be clear, the Commission does not regulate or approve petroleum prices in a deregulated downstream market. Our responsibility under the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act, 2018, is to promote competitive markets, prevent anti-competitive conduct and protect consumers from unfair, deceptive and exploitative business practices,” Bello said.
He questioned why marketers often respond immediately by increasing pump prices whenever crude oil prices rise, yet delay passing on the benefits to consumers when prices fall.
“We are concerned that while dealers often respond swiftly by hiking pump prices whenever crude prices rise, it is curious that it is taking forever for consumers to benefit significantly when crude prices fall. Competitive markets must work fairly in both directions,” he added.
Bello warned that deregulation does not absolve businesses of the responsibility to compete fairly or respect consumer rights.
According to him, the Commission will investigate and sanction any company found engaging in anti-competitive conduct, consumer exploitation or any practice that violates the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act.
“Where credible evidence indicates conduct that undermines competition, exploits consumers or otherwise contravenes the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act, the Commission will investigate and take appropriate enforcement action,” he said.
He also urged Nigerians to continue reporting suspected price manipulation, anti-competitive practices and other unfair market behaviour through the Commission’s official complaint channels.
The FCCPC’s warning comes days after the Dangote Refinery reduced its ex-depot petrol price from ₦1,175 to ₦1,125 per litre, following the continued decline in international crude oil prices. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, recently fell to about 72.97 dollars per barrel, its lowest level since February.
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