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Net forex inflow declines 18.3% to $48.1bn in 9 months

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Forex

Inflows from IMTOs fall 15.7% to $3.2bn

Q3 net forex inflow rebounds 20% QoQ

By Babajide Komolafe, Economy Editor

Net foreign exchange inflow into the Nigerian economy fell by 18.3 per cent, year-on-year (YoY), to $48.1 billion in the nine months ended September 2025, from $58.8 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

The decline was driven by a sharper 15 per cent YoY drop in foreign exchange inflows, which outweighed a 12.2 per cent YoY reduction in foreign exchange outflows during the period.

Analysis of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data on foreign exchange flows for the third quarter of 2025 showed that total forex inflows into the economy declined to $83.71 billion in the nine-month period, compared with $99.44 billion in the same period of 2024. Similarly, foreign exchange outflows fell to $35.65 billion in 9M’25, from $40.61 billion in the corresponding period of 2024.

A breakdown of the inflow data showed that forex inflows through the CBN dropped sharply by 30 per cent YoY to $28.72 billion in 9M’25, from $40.15 billion in 9M’24. Inflows through autonomous sources also declined, though at a slower pace of 6.8 per cent YoY, to $54.99 billion from $59.29 billion.

On the outflow side, forex outflows through the CBN fell by 18.8 per cent YoY to $25.68 billion in 9M’25, from $32.16 billion a year earlier. However, outflows through autonomous sources rose by 18 per cent YoY to $9.97 billion, compared with $8.44 billion in 9M’24.

As a result, net forex flow through the CBN declined steeply by 62 per cent YoY to $3.04 billion, from $7.99 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. Net flows through autonomous sources also dropped by 11.5 per cent YoY to $45.02 billion from $50.85 billion.

IMTO inflows weaken autonomous supply

Further analysis showed that inflows from International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), a key component of autonomous foreign exchange supply, also weakened during the period, reflecting pressures on diaspora remittances.

CBN data showed that IMTO inflows declined by 15.7 per cent YoY to $3.22 billion in the nine months ended September 2025, from $3.82 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

The decline was recorded across all three quarters of 2025. In the first quarter, IMTO inflows fell by 18 per cent YoY to $888.3 million, from $1.08 billion in Q1’24. This was followed by a 6.5 per cent YoY decline in the second quarter to $1.18 billion, compared with $1.26 billion a year earlier. In the third quarter, inflows dropped more sharply by 22 per cent YoY to $1.15 billion, from $1.48 billion in Q3’24.

The sustained decline in IMTO inflows contributed to the overall moderation in autonomous forex inflows, despite policy measures aimed at attracting diaspora remittances through formal channels.

Q3 rebound offers mild relief

Further analysis showed that net forex inflow into the economy recorded a 6.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) decline in Q1’25 and a 4.1 per cent QoQ decline in Q2’25. However, the downward trend was reversed in Q3’25, when net foreign exchange inflow rose by 20 per cent QoQ.

According to the CBN in its Q3’25 Quarterly Economic Report, “The economy recorded a higher net foreign exchange inflow, driven by lower outflow through the Bank.”

The CBN stated that net foreign exchange inflow rose to $17.46 billion in Q3’25, compared with $14.46 billion in the preceding quarter. Aggregate foreign exchange inflow declined marginally by 4.17 per cent to $26.27 billion from $27.41 billion in Q2’25, while foreign exchange outflow fell sharply by 32.01 per cent to $8.80 billion from $12.94 billion.

The post Net forex inflow declines 18.3% to $48.1bn in 9 months appeared first on Vanguard News.

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Business

FG omitted N8.8trn spending worth 2% of GDP from recent budgets — IMF

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By Yinka Kolawole, with agency report

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has disclosed that the Federal Government (FG) failed to capture public expenditure equivalent to about two per cent of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in recent national budgets, creating a mismatch between the country’s reported fiscal deficit and its actual financing needs.

IMF’s Resident Representative in Nigeria, Christian Ebeke, made the disclosure on Wednesday during a meeting with business executives in Lagos.

Vanguard Newspaper’s findings indicate that in 2025, Nigeria’s nominal GDP was N441.5 trillion. Government expenditure accounted for approximately 11.73% of this GDP. However, an additional N8.83 trillion in public spending—equivalent to about 2% of the GDP—was unrecorded in official budgets, distorting the country’s actual fiscal deficit and borrowing needs

According to Ebeke, the omission has made Nigeria’s fiscal deficit appear lower than its true borrowing requirement, as some capital expenditure was excluded from budget documents and implementation reports.

Ebeke explained that the unreported spending was largely tied to major government projects executed outside the budget framework, making it more difficult to accurately assess the country’s fiscal position and the scale of public investment.

“So far, we think that there are about two per cent of GDP of expenditure that were not reported that should be reported and should be recorded, so that this statistical discrepancy will disappear,” he said.

He noted that incomplete fiscal reporting also complicates coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, as policymakers may be working without a complete picture of the government’s financing obligations.

The IMF official said the Nigerian authorities had begun addressing the gap by revising budget legislation to accommodate previously unrecorded expenditure. However, he stressed that updated budget implementation reports would be required to fully reflect the changes.

Ebeke emphasised that greater fiscal transparency is critical to strengthening public financial management, warning that off-budget spending raises concerns over procurement practices, accountability and oversight.

His remarks come on the heels of the IMF’s latest Article IV consultation on Nigeria, which commended the Federal Government’s macroeconomic reforms for improving economic stability and boosting investor confidence.

The Fund, however, cautioned that while the reforms have stabilised the economy, they are yet to deliver broad-based improvements in living standards and remain vulnerable to external shocks, including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

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Rev360 Crash: LCCI demands CIT deadline extension, penalty waiver

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By Yinka Kolawole

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has urged the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) to immediately extend the June 30, 2026 deadline for filing Company Income Tax (CIT) returns by one month.

This, according LCCI, follows what it saw as widespread technical failures on the newly deployed Rev360 tax platform that left thousands of companies unable to comply with the statutory deadline.

In a statement, yesterday, Director General of LCCI, Dr. Chinyere Almona, argued that while some businesses waited until the final day to file their returns, the prolonged disruption of the portal on the deadline day made compliance impossible for many taxpayers.

According to her, Rev360, which was launched barely two months ago, suffered prolonged downtime on June 30, triggering login failures, validation errors and unsuccessful submissions as companies raced to meet the filing deadline.

“The failure was that of the platform, not the taxpayers,” she said, stressing that deploying a new digital tax system shortly before a major compliance deadline inevitably comes with operational challenges, particularly under heavy traffic.

Almona noted that the predictable surge in last-minute filings exposed the platform’s inadequate capacity, leaving many businesses locked out of the system at a critical period.

She called on NRS to take three immediate steps to restore confidence in the tax administration process: extend the CIT filing deadline by one month; waive all penalties for companies that attempted to file on or before June 30 but were prevented by the system outage; and urgently strengthen the capacity and stability of the Rev360 platform before the next filing cycle.

The LCCI DG said a prompt announcement of the deadline extension and penalty waiver would calm growing anxiety within the business community and prevent unnecessary disputes arising from a failure beyond taxpayers’ control.

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Power failure costs Nigeria jobs, investments — APFFLON

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By Providence Ayanfeoluwa

The Africa Association of Professional Freight Forwarders and Logistics of Nigeria (APFFLON) has challenged the Minister of Power, Joseph Tegbe, to translate recent assurances on electricity sector reforms into visible improvements in power supply.

The group maintained that Nigerians can no longer afford the economic consequences of persistent electricity failures.

In a statement signed by its National President, Otunba Frank Ogunojemite, on Tuesday, APFFLON described the electricity crisis as one of the biggest impediments to Nigeria’s economic growth, industrialisation and investment drive. According to him, no nation can build a globally competitive economy while grappling with chronic power shortages.

He stated: “No nation can build a globally competitive economy while operating in darkness. Stable electricity is not a luxury—it is the foundation upon which industries grow, investors gain confidence, jobs are created and businesses flourish.

“The cost of inadequate electricity is being paid daily by manufacturers, freight forwarders, importers, exporters and ordinary Nigerians. Businesses are shutting down, investors are relocating to countries with more reliable infrastructure, and unemployment continues to rise.”

Ogunojemite lamented that businesses across the country still rely heavily on diesel and petrol generators to sustain operations, a situation that has significantly increased production costs and weakened the competitiveness of Nigerian enterprises. He noted that the cost of doing business in Nigeria remains among the highest on the African continent, largely because of inadequate electricity supply.

“The Minister has an opportunity to leave a lasting legacy. Nigerians will judge this administration not by the number of conferences held or policies announced, but by whether electricity becomes stable, affordable and accessible”.

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