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Peter Obi’s acceptance in North still in doubt despite Kwankwaso’s support base – Muhammad, Ibrahim 

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A political alliance between former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and the leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is already generating fresh conversations ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Although neither politician has officially emerged as the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) yet, both men are seen as preferred candidates to contest against the ruling party and other strong opposition parties in the next election cycle.

Political observers believe the talks are largely driven by the electoral realities of the 2023 presidential election, where both candidates recorded impressive but regionally limited performances.

Obi secured more than six million votes nationwide under the Labour Party and won 11 states alongside the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). However, in the northern region, his victories were limited to Plateau and Nasarawa states, as well as the FCT, where he enjoyed considerable support.

Kwankwaso, who contested on the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), won Kano State and secured nearly one million votes, reinforcing his influence in the North-West.

The proposed alliance is now raising questions about whether Kwankwaso’s northern political structure could help Obi improve his acceptance across the region in 2027.

Speaking with DAILY POST in an exclusive interview, political analyst and lecturer at the Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology, Professor Murtala Muhammad, said Obi’s appeal in the North during the 2023 election was mostly concentrated among urban youths and citizens seeking alternatives to mainstream political parties.

“Peter Obi demonstrated some electoral strength in parts of Northern Nigeria during the 2023 presidential election, particularly in Abuja and among urban youths, middle-class voters, and citizens dissatisfied with the traditional political establishment,” he said.

According to him, electoral trends showed that Obi’s strongest support base remained outside the North.

“Electoral analyses estimated his northern vote share at roughly 14 per cent, compared to over 40 per cent in Southern Nigeria,” Muhammad stated.

He explained that while an alliance with Kwankwaso could strengthen Obi’s chances in Kano and parts of the North-West, it may not significantly alter the broader regional voting pattern.

“Although a potential alliance with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso could improve Obi’s competitiveness, particularly in Kano through the Kwankwasiyya movement, it does not automatically guarantee widespread northern support,” he added.

Muhammad argued that voting behaviour across most parts of the North-West is still heavily influenced by religion, regional identity, longstanding party loyalty, and local political interests.

“Consequently, many northern voters may still be reluctant to support Obi despite Kwankwaso’s endorsement, making it analytically inaccurate to assume that Kwankwaso’s northern identity alone can deliver the wider North-West voting bloc to Obi,” he said.

Also speaking on the development, Kano-based politician and State House of Assembly aspirant, Aminu Abdullahi Ibrahim, acknowledged that Obi has gained more visibility among northern youths since the last election.

“I believe Peter Obi has gained a level of popularity in parts of northern Nigeria, especially among young people, urban voters, Christians in the North-Central region, and Nigerians who are frustrated,” Ibrahim said.

He maintained, however, that Obi still faces stiff political limitations in the core North-West states, where established political structures remain dominant.

“His popularity in the core North-West, particularly in states like Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara, still remains limited when compared to established northern political figures such as Atiku Abubakar,” he added.

Despite those limitations, Ibrahim said a merger between both politicians could still create a stronger opposition platform than what existed during the 2023 election.

“That said, if Peter Obi and Kwankwaso eventually form a political alliance ahead of future elections, it could make a significant difference compared to 2023,” he stated.

According to him, any serious challenge in 2027 would depend on more than just popularity or online support.

“They require strong grassroots mobilization, party unity, trusted local structures, religious and ethnic balancing, and the ability to protect votes across polling units. Even if Obi and Kwankwaso work together, translating public excitement into nationwide electoral victory will still be a major challenge,” Ibrahim said.

As coalition discussions continue, analysts say the success of any Obi-Kwankwaso partnership may ultimately depend on whether both politicians can transform their individual regional strengths into a truly national political movement capable of competing across Nigeria’s diverse electoral landscape.




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2027: NDC moves to take advantage of APC’s post-primary crisis

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The National Democratic Congress, NDC, is positioned to take political advantage of the crisis trailing the primaries of the All Progressives Congress, APC, especially in Bayelsa State, home of its national leader, Senator Seriake Dickson.

This was disclosed in a statement on Thursday by National Coordinator of the Sagbama/Ekeremor Grassroots Agenda, Comrade Felix Osuobene. 

Osuobene revealed that Dickson was spotted celebrating the fallout of the Bayelsa APC primaries in Sagbama/Ekeremor Federal Constituency where Bernard Kenibai emerged as the party’s candidate.

The statement noted that crisis trailing the APC primaries across the country, involving disputes over the screening exercise, disqualification of aspirants and internal tensions, has generated national attention.

Osuobene said opposition strategists are increasingly convinced that the ruling party’s internal crisis has handed them a valuable political opening ahead of the 2027 general elections.

According to him, the calculation among opposition elements in Sagbama/Ekeremor Federal Constituency of Bayelsa State is that the APC has weakened itself in a constituency it cannot afford to lose.

“Our sources confirmed that the national leader of NDC, Senator Seriake Dickson was seen celebrating the emergence of Hon. Bernard Kenibai as the APC candidate; viewed in political circles as an easier adversary,” Osuobene stated.

The controversy centres on the exclusion of Prof. Princewill Woyinbrakemi Igbagara, an academic and technocrat who is said to have built considerable grassroots and elite support and was regarded as the frontrunner.

Osuobene described the exclusion as a costly miscalculation by the APC, particularly given President Bola Tinubu’s standing directive that the party present its strongest candidates at every level in 2027.

The opposition, according to Osuobene, believe the NDC now has three pathways to exploit the crisis.

He stated, “The first is voter apathy. If aggrieved APC stakeholders feel sufficiently marginalized, many may simply refuse to mobilize for the party come election day — a potentially devastating outcome in a contest where presidential victories are built on the loyalty of local structures and grassroots foot soldiers.

“The second pathway is silent defection. Nigeria’s political history is littered with cases of discontented party loyalists who remain publicly committed to their party while quietly delivering votes to the opposition. The NDC is well positioned to attract frustrated political actors from within the APC who are searching for an alternative platform.

“The third and perhaps most immediate advantage is propaganda. Opposition parties thrive politically when the ruling party appears divided.

“For a party like the NDC — which is actively marketing itself as a cleaner, fairer political alternative — the spectacle of APC tearing itself apart in Sagbama/Ekeremor is ready-made campaign material.

“The stakes are particularly high in the South-South, where the APC has historically struggled to build a durable, unified structure. In Bayelsa State especially, the optics of excluding a well-regarded constituency son from a primary race risk reinforcing longstanding perceptions that the party is neither inclusive nor internally democratic — perceptions the NDC is eager to deepen.

“Even if the APC leadership believes it acted within party guidelines, the emotional reaction of supporters on the ground may produce unintended political consequences.

“In regions where the APC seeks to expand its influence, particularly the South-South, controversies that alienate local stakeholders could become valuable political capital for opposition movements like the NDC.”

Osuobene observed that ahead of the general elections, the NDC appears determined to ensure that every crack in the APC’s armour, no matter how little, is widened into a national conversation about the ruling party’s fitness to govern.




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Gov Fintiri warns APC members against anti-party activities amid primary election disputes

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Against widespread allegations of imposition of candidates in the primary elections of the Adamawa State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Governor Ahmadu Fintiri has warned members against anti-party activities.

Fintiri spoke on Thursday, barely a week after the primary elections for governorship, senatorial, House of Representatives and state House of Assembly slots, in which leaders of the party were widely perceived to have imposed their preferred aspirants, causing disenchantment among those who felt unfairly treated.

The disenchantment is already being seen as the kind that contributed to anti-party activities, which played a significant role in the party’s loss in the governorship elections in the state in 2019 and 2023.

Receiving Adamawa APC executives on a Sallah homage at the Government House in Yola on Thursday, Governor Fintiri appealed to party members to remain united and committed to strengthening the APC to secure victory in all elective positions during the 2027 elections.

He said the party members who emerged as candidates after last week’s primaries were chosen by the will of God and expressed confidence that they would defeat candidates of other parties in the coming general elections.

Assuring party members that his administration would continue to promote unity and political stability across Adamawa State, and reaffirming his commitment to ensuring that all APC candidates emerge victorious in the coming elections, the governor reiterated the need for all party members to work for, and not against, the party.

The state chairman of the APC, Alhaji Hamza Madagali, who led his executive committee on their Eid al-Kabir visit to Fintiri, thanked the governor for his role in the conduct of the party’s primaries.




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2027: Former Delta Speaker Ochei resigns from APC

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A former Speaker of the Delta State House of Assembly, Victor Ochei, Esq., have resigned his membership of the All Progressives Congress, APC.

Ochei announced his resignation in a letter to the leadership of the APC. 

The former lawmaker did not disclose if he is going to join any other political party as the 2027 general election draws near. 

In the resignation letter, Ochei stressed that he worked tirelessly for the APC long before many who currently occupy positions within the party.

The letter read, “My dear political associates, supporters, friends, and the good people of Delta State.
“After deep reflections and wide consultations, I have taken the difficult but necessary decision to formally resign my membership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and move on to continue my political journey elsewhere.

“In 2016, I joined the All Progressives Congress with sincerity of purpose and a strong belief in the vision and future of the party.

“Over the last ten years, I devoted myself wholeheartedly to building and strengthening the APC at all levels. Together with many committed party faithfuls, we expanded the party’s reach, deepened its structures, mobilized support across communities, and worked tirelessly to give the party relevance and visibility within our political environment. 
“Long before many who currently occupy positions within the party joined the political family they now belong to, I had already committed myself to the ideals of leadership, service, grassroots development, and the pursuit of a better society for our people. 

“I leave the party proud of the progress we made together. We nurtured relationships, built bridges across divides, encouraged participation among the youth and women, and contributed meaningfully to democratic growth and political engagement within our state and beyond.

“However, growth remains a constant necessity in every institution, political movement and human endeavour. Leadership must continually evolve to reflect inclusion, mutual respect, fairness, and the aspirations of the people. It is in recognition of this need for broader growth and the continuation of my political convictions that I have chosen to chart a new course.”

Ochei said his resignation from the APC is not borne out of “bitterness, resentment or hostility towards anyone”.

“Rather, it is inspired by my enduring commitment to service, progress, and the political future I envision for our people.

“I remain grateful to the many loyal supporters, leaders, stakeholders, and party members who stood with me throughout this journey. Your friendship, trust, and dedication will always be appreciated and remembered.

“As I move forward to continue my political journey from the APC, I do so with hope, renewed determination, and faith in the future. I urge all my supporters and associates to remain peaceful, focused, and committed to the democratic ideals we all share,” the letter concluded. 




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