By Daniel Abia

The nail came down hard and pierced deep into the coffin on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. It was a night that dreams of millions of young men and women who believed in loyalty and followership were dashed by a single unilateral decision.

It was a gloomy Wednesday night that Rivers State governor, Siminalayi Fubara, announced his withdrawal from participating in the All Progressives Congress, APC’s governorship primary slated for the next day, Thursday, May 21. Fubara hinged his shocking withdrawal on the peace of Rivers State and supremacy of the party.

“Leadership is ultimately about sacrifice”, Fubara philosophized. “There comes a time when personal ambition must yield to the greater good of the people. Rivers State is bigger than any individual, and at this critical moment, the peace, stability, and unity of our dear state must take precedence over every personal interest”.

Subtle Appeal

He went on to make an appeal nobody will be willing to listen to. “To my supporters who stood firmly with me throughout this journey, who gave their time, resources, prayers, and unwavering hope, I offer my deepest gratitude. I understand the disappointment, the anger, and the pain many of you may feel”.

Fubara admitted that “not everything a hunter sees in the forest is spoken of in the marketplace. Some truths are best borne quietly, not out of fear, but out of wisdom and restraint for the sake of peace and a greater purpose”.

Wider ethnic crack

Before now, four known aspirants had indicated interest to contest the gubernatorial primary preparatory to the 2027 elections in the state. Three of them from the Kalabari stock of the riverine dichotomy: Fubara, Tonye Cole and former Commissioner for Works, Dr. Dax George Kelly while Hon. Kingsley Chinda emerged most controversially from the Ikwerre stock of the upland area of the state. Chinda later won the primary unopposed.

Sources revealed that on Tuesday night, Fubara had a  meeting with his close allies and opened up to them his plans against the primary. On the list of the APC screening committee, it was discovered that Fubara’s name was conspicuously missing. Dax, Chinda and Cole were cleared by the committee to stand for the shadow election.

Unfortunately, the three Kalabari aspirants stepped down one after another including the governor leaving the space for Chinda to soar.

Perhaps, Fubara foresaw his defeat ahead of time at the poll and chose to save his head by throwing in the towel. But in doing so, he politically plunged his teeming supporters into the ocean of emptiness. In the governor’s camp discordant posturing takes a centre stage. Flames of anger, fury and regrets now characterize the once robust relationship between him and his army of followers. Today, that organic followership has evaporated.

Early signs

The political strangulation of Fubara started barely four months into his administration in 2023. Soon, what started like mere smoke snowballed into a full blown debacle. Months after, the Assembly complex was bombed to evade possible impeachment. Fubara himself, like a cat with nine lives, miraculously escaped three impeachment attempts. A state of emergency was declared and Fubara was sent home on six months suspension with his deputy and the Assembly. But he was still blind.

In all of these, pyrrhic peace “agreements” were reached but the core issue was never resolved. To save his political future, Fubara decamped to APC last December believing he would have a reprieve. He was hailed. He was praised. Many saw that move as a smart maneuvering aimed at putting the minister of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Mr Nyesom Wike, where he belonged. Silence.  But to those who could see clearly, Fubara was only lured into APC to be politically clipped and cascaded into oblivion.

Structure-less

Until he shockingly withdrew from the primary, Fubara was never officially received by the national leadership of the APC. His relationship with the APC state Exco led by an ally of Wike, Chief Tony Okocha, was frosty.

Of the 23 local government chairmen in the state, 22 of them are Wike’s men installed during the last local government elections. In the just concluded APC primary, all of Fubara’s loyalists were summarily disqualified from the House of Assembly, House of Representatives and the Senate polls. No reasons were given for their disqualifications, yet, the governor was still blind.

Most sacrilegious of it all was the harassment of the former deputy governor and now a serving senator in the 10th Senate and a cerebral politician from Kalabari, Dr. Ipalibo Harry Banigo. She was disqualified from seeking reelection to represent Rivers West senatorial district. That position will now be filled by Wike’s ally, Felix Obuah.

So, even if Fubara had braced the odds and was cleared to win  re-election, he would simply become a cockroach in the midst of fowls. He would be caged. He would be suffocated because he has no structure of his own both in the state and at the federal levels. With such empty front, impeaching Fubara would be the easiest political process ever.

Reactions

Several reactions have trailed Fubara’s decision to dump the primary with some people hailing the step as the most sacrificial thing to do.

While some of his supporters are clamouring that the governor seeks a different political platform for the 2027 general elections, others are pushing for restraint. The immediate past President of the Ijaw National Congress, INC, Prof. Benjamin Okaba, said going to another party may lead to his impeachment by the Wike dominated political space.

“If Fubara picks the form of another party, he may risk impeachment. He needs to consult widely and seek people’s opinion on the best way to go. The optics may be very complex. The governor’s decision was for the best interest of the people. This is state capture by Abuja politicians and Rivers people must rise up and take over their state”.

Chief Anabs Sara-Igbe, a chieftain of the pan Niger Delta Elders Forum, PANDEF, said, “the governor has been very evasive. We don’t understand what is happening but it is time for Rivers people to stand up”.  But “I can assure you that another Ikwerre man from Obio/Akpo can never be governor of Rivers State”.

NDC beckons

There are insinuations that Fubara may dump the APC and align his political future with the National Democratic Congress, NDC. This is a bit convincing on two fronts. First, the judgement of the Federal High Court against INEC’s timelines for the parties primaries gives Fubara a leverage. Secondly, Blessing Fubara, alleged to be Fubara’s brother, has since picked up the NDC form for governorship. Could he be a place holder for his brother? That riddle would be solved in weeks or months to come.

The fact right now is that a gale of defection from the APC to other political parties especially by Fubara’s allies who were disqualified by the APC screening committee is imminent. In this moment of political uncertainty, nobody hates Wike and nobody loves Fubara, but the people love Rivers more.

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