Following the conclusion of the 2026 World Cup, which saw Spain claim a deserved 1-0 extra-time victory over Argentina in the final, a supercomputer has predicted the 20 most likely recipients of the Ballon d’Or ahead of October’s ceremony.

Using a simulation-based model, that takes into account individual statistics, betting odds and team honours, the formula – courtesy of Action Network – was run 10,000 times, with each percentage reflecting the number of simulations in which a player came out on top and won the award.

The likes of Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe boosted their chances this summer with outstanding individual performances, despite falling short of tangible team success. However, after La Roja’s second world title triumph, it is Spain’s star players who dominate the top 20, with many now firmly in the driving seat in the race for football’s biggest individual prize.

20-16

In this section, all five players have been given less than a one per cent chance of winning the Ballon d’Or, but each has, in one way or another, done enough to catch the supercomputer’s eye. In Achraf Hakimi’s case, that is likely down to the fact he won the Champions League, contributed to three goals in six World Cup matches as Morocco captain, and also led his country to the AFCON title.

Given those achievements, he could arguably rank above several of the players within five places of him, particularly taking into account how Portugal’s campaign ultimately fizzled out despite club-mate Joao Neves coming in at 19th. It is also somewhat surprising to see Pau Cubarsi given only a 0.4 per cent chance, considering he helped Spain concede just one goal all summer while winning the Young Player of the Tournament award.

Elsewhere, Bukayo Saka’s fitness issues saw him become an unexpected bit-part player during Arsenal’s first Premier League title triumph in 22 years. Even so, he still ranks higher than Raphinha – the Barcelona winger who contributed to 16 goals in 22 matches as Hansi Flick’s side retained their La Liga crown.

15-11

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters/Sam Navarro

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is up next, with the Paris Saint-Germain winger terrorising defences all season before being forced to sit and watch the World Cup from afar due to the misfortune of representing Georgia. Pedri is undoubtedly one of the best midfielders in the world, but he was often overlooked during Spain’s triumph, starting just twice across the USA, Canada and Mexico.

At 1.1%, Michael Olise is held back by the lack of any continental or international silverware. He had previously ranked among the top three in the Ballon d’Or power rankings, with his remarkable return of 29 goals and 34 assists seemingly destined to propel Bayern Munich and France to even greater heights.

Rounding out this section, Vinicius Jr is the 12th favourite after famously throwing his toys out of the pram when Rodri pipped him to the award at the death in 2024. Meanwhile, Erling Haaland slots in at 11th, with his goalscoring exploits continuing to carry significant weight. His World Cup debut culminated in an almost inhuman haul of seven goals in five matches for surprise package Norway.

10-6

Argentina’s Lionel Messi via REUTERS/Amanda Perobelli

Ferran Torres scored the most important goal of his life in the World Cup final, arriving late into the box to crash home the winner. While the headlines that followed quickly shifted away from him and onto Argentina’s disgraceful conduct, the supercomputer still gives him a 1.2 per cent chance of winning the Ballon d’Or thanks mostly to that decisive moment.

England duo Declan Rice (1.3%) and Harry Kane (2.5%) sit just ahead of him. Both players won domestic league titles this season but were unable to bring football home for the Three Lions. Meanwhile, Vitinha enjoyed success on multiple fronts, winning a treble with Paris Saint-Germain.

Last but certainly not least, Lionel Messi has been given a seven per cent chance of extending his record haul by winning a ninth Ballon d’Or. His odds were significantly stronger heading into the World Cup final after a sensational tournament in which he scored eight goals and provided four assists. However, defeat to Spain dealt a major blow to his chances, as his contributions for Inter Miami do not count towards the voting period, causing his hopes to take a hit at the final hurdle.

5-1

REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach via Action Images

Jude Bellingham is England’s highest-ranked player on this list. One of the standout performers at the World Cup based on statistics, he offered another glimpse of just how high his ceiling could be, despite having only recently turned 23. Meanwhile, with a 10.5 per cent chance of winning, Ousmane Dembele is well placed to claim back-to-back Ballon d’Or titles.

In third place, Kylian Mbappe scored more goals than almost anyone else in domestic and European football last season before going on to win the Golden Boot at the World Cup, becoming the competition’s all-time leading goalscorer in the process. However, because Lamine Yamal was able to pair his individual brilliance with the game’s biggest team prize, the Spain star edges ahead of him in second.

The current favourite, with a 26 per cent chance of winning, is Rodri. The midfielder claimed the Golden Ball as the best player at this summer’s World Cup and could now be on course for a second Ballon d’Or. In doing so, he would further cement his place among football’s elite, having already completed the sport by becoming one of just 11 players to win a World Cup, a Champions League and football’s most prestigious individual award.

Middlesbrough are in advanced talks to sign a Tottenham star in the summer transfer window.

We could see a host of Tottenham players leave the club on permanent deals during the summer transfer window, especially if the spending continues.

Spurs have already bought a number of new additions to the club, and the nature of modern football finances means some players will have to leave.

When it comes to young stars, they might fail to see a pathway into the first team with Tottenham strengthening with plenty of senior additions.

An example is Luka Vuskovic, who joined Brighton earlier in the window. And it appears that he’s not going to be the only one.

Middlesbrough pushing for Tottenham star

via Reuters

According to reliable reporter Alasdair Gold, Middlesbrough are in advanced talks to sign Will Lankshear on a permanent deal from Tottenham.

Lankshear, who won Oxford United’s Golden Boot and Young Player of the Year last season, was highly rated at Spurs, but it appears they are willing to cash in.

Middlesbrough failed to gain promotion to the Premier League last season, with a lack of a top-quality striker being a key reason.

As mentioned, Lankshear was highly rated, so it will be interesting to see if Spurs seal a deal in their favour by including a sell-on clause or a buyback option.

Tottenham must show pathway for young players

Tottenham won’t have an unlimited pot of money to buy new additions for their first team, so they do need to ensure they are better at developing young talent.

Although Tottenham received a huge fee for Vuskovic in the summer, it’s still another young talent lost, and Lankshear looks set to be the next.

We’re also seeing Lucas Bergvall linked with a move away from the club, while Tynan Thompson recently joined Manchester United.

Although this may have been Spurs’ decision to allow them all to depart with the fees considered good value, they still need to ensure they are better at improving and developing young players.