From Abiola’s shadow to ADC’s uncertainty

By Luminous Jannamike, Abuja

ON a quiet morning in Yola, an old campaign aide once watched Atiku Abubakar stare at a map of Nigeria spread across a wooden table. This was years ago, long before WhatsApp broadcasts and social media war rooms, when politics was still conducted with handshakes, horse-trading, and long nights of persuasion. Atiku tapped the map slowly, state by state, as if tracing a destiny that had already been promised but stubbornly refused to arrive.

For Atiku Abubakar, the presidency has never been an abstract ambition. It has been personal; patient, consuming, and relentless. From the days he stood beside Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola, watching a historic mandate annulled, to his current positioning within the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Atiku’s political life has revolved around a single, unfinished journey: becoming Nigeria’s president.

He has tried six times. He has failed six times. Now, with 2027 approaching, he is preparing again.
To some, it is courage. To others, fatigue dressed up as persistence. To Atiku, it is simply unfinished business.

The Abiola Lesson

Those who knew Atiku in the Abiola era say that June 12 did something to him. He was not just a businessman-turned-politician then; he was a believer in political transition, in civilian rule, in the idea that Nigeria could be governed differently. Watching Abiola win and lose the presidency in the same breath taught Atiku two enduring lessons: that power is never gifted, and that timing can destroy destiny. That lesson never left him.

When democracy returned in 1999, Atiku did not hesitate. He aligned with Olusegun Obasanjo, becoming vice president under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). For eight years, he occupied the second-highest office in the land, building networks, attracting loyalists, and cultivating goodwill across regions, especially in the South, where a northern politician rarely enjoyed such acceptance. But ambition has a way of turning alliances brittle.

By 2007, Atiku had broken up with Obasanjo and entered the long cycle that would come to define his political career: switching platforms in pursuit of a ticket, contesting fiercely, losing narrowly or decisively, and retreating, often physically, to Dubai.

A Pattern That Refused to Change

PDP – Action Congress – All Progressives Congress. Back to PDP. Out again. Now ADC.

Atiku’s critics say this movement tells its own story: a politician who enters parties to contest elections, not to build institutions. His supporters counter that Nigeria’s parties are weak, transactional, and rarely worthy of long-term loyalty.

Still, the record is difficult to ignore. Atiku has never stayed long enough in any party after defeat to rebuild it from the grassroots. Elections end, the noise fades, and he disappears, sometimes from public life altogether, until another electoral cycle calls him back. In the South, that absence was noticed.

Once, Atiku was warmly received there. He spoke the language of restructuring when others avoided it. He was seen as a bridge between regions. Over time, however, trust thinned. Many southern leaders felt he took their support for granted, without offering them meaningful political ownership in return. That tension finally snapped in 2023.

The 2023 Breaking Point

When Atiku secured the PDP presidential ticket in 2022, it was not just a victory; it was a rupture.

Under the party’s zoning understanding, many expected power to shift southward after eight years of Muhammadu Buhari. Instead, Atiku emerged as candidate, with Iyorchia Ayu, also from the North, remaining party chairman. Party elders pleaded. Governors warned.

The argument was simple: how do you explain to your people that both the presidential candidate and the party chairman are from the same region? Atiku refused to step down or compel Ayu to resign. Five PDP governors walked away.

That decision did more than cost votes; it fractured the party’s moral authority. Campaign structures collapsed in key states. The PDP entered the election divided and exited it wounded. The aftershocks continue today, with defections thinning its base and internal wars redefining its future.

Some party insiders still describe that moment as the point where Atiku chose ambition over cohesion, and lost both.

Voices Around Him

Not everyone sees it that way. Abdul-Aziz Na’ibi Abubakar, an entrepreneur and politician associated with the former vice president said: “I proudly support Atiku Abubakar for the presidency due to his authentic and principled character, unwavering commitment to fostering inclusivity, and dedication to mentoring the youth.

“As a visionary leader, he possesses a clear readiness to address Nigeria’s and Africa’s pressing challenges with innovative and practical solutions.

“I earnestly pray that Almighty Allah grants him victory in the 2027 election and blesses us with long life, sound health, and prosperity to witness his transformative eight-year tenure as president.”

For loyalists, Atiku remains the most prepared man in the room, a former vice president whose ideas on privatisation, subsidy removal, and restructuring were once dismissed but are now being implemented by others.

Demola Olanrewaju, another associate of Atiku Abubakar, said: “His Excellency, Atiku Abubakar, is a former Vice President. He is well experienced. He is a man of many political parts, and he will draw support not just from within the ADC but also from the PDP and the APC if and when he decides to contest that election.

“So it’s not about ADC having structure. We saw what His Excellency Peter Obi did in the last election in Nigeria. It’s about getting the votes, and we believe very strongly that with the present direction of the PDP, a lot of the PDP structure, and some of those within the APC, will definitely work for change in this country in 2027.”

Persistence or Desperation?

Yet the question refuses to go away. Now in his late seventies, Atiku faces whispers about age, relevance, and timing. Critics describe his seventh attempt as political exhaustion masquerading as resilience.

Asked directly about this, Olanrewaju pushed back. “No. Well, I mean, it’s simple. I’ve been married for quite a number of years and I’m still married. I’ve been a friend to people for quite a number of years and I’m still friends with those people. I have certain aspirations in life and I’m still on those aspirations.

“We don’t give up on our aspirations. We do what we want to do. His Excellency Atiku has made it clear he wants to be the President of Nigeria. As long as he’s healthy, as long as he’s fit, he would always put himself forward.

“So I think there shouldn’t be any controversy about that, except for the fact that it is politics and people will try to use everything they can use against you.”

Not everyone is convinced. Lere Olayinka, media aide to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, said: “Someone should tell our serial presidential election contester that Wike also has no regret for ensuring that he failed in the election and will make sure that he fails again and again.”

From the youth flank, the impatience is sharper. Eze-Onyebuchi Chukwu, national youth leader of APGA, said: “Rather than aspiring to run again in 2027, Atiku should rally his political allies to support a young, credible Nigerian. It’s time to return power to the youths.

“Atiku challenged Goodluck Jonathan in 2011, Muhammadu Buhari in 2019, and Tinubu in 2023. Now he wants to contest again in 2027, is he the only one fit to be president? There are capable young Nigerians who deserve a chance.”

The ADC Question

Now Atiku is in ADC, a party still finding its ideological footing and already grappling with zoning debates. Peter Obi has hinted that power should shift south in 2027. Atiku appears to be the loudest northern voice insisting on running. The risk is obvious.

Will southern voters, already wary after 2023, rally behind him again? Or will ADC fracture before it fully matures?

Atiku’s camp believes money, experience, and national networks can overcome structural weakness. History, however, suggests otherwise. Winning a primary is one thing; building trust across regions is another.

Atiku himself, perhaps sensing the mood, struck a conciliatory note recently.

“My being in the 2027 race does not prevent anyone from contesting. If a vibrant and widely accepted younger candidate emerges, I am willing to step aside,” he said during a recent interview with BBC Hausa.

Whether that openness is tactical or sincere remains an open question.

An Unfinished Map

Back in Yola, the memory of Atiku tracing Nigeria on that table still lingers; state by state, region by region. Always close, never close enough.

Atiku Abubakar’s story is not merely about losing elections. It is the story of a man who once stood at the centre of national goodwill, then slowly allowed ambition to outrun coalition-building. It is about opportunities grasped and mishandled, alliances forged and broken, and a future that no longer looks as generous as the past.

In 2027, Nigerians will decide whether persistence deserves one final reward, or whether history, having offered its lessons repeatedly, has already given its answer.

The post Atiku Abubakar: Six presidential runs, one unresolved ambition appeared first on Vanguard News.

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