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CBN projects 4.49% economic growth, $51bn external reserves for 2026

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Nigeria’s foreign reserves

*Projects 12.4% inflation rate, 34.6% debt to GDP

*Lists risks to economic growth

By Babajide Komolafe, Economy Editor

The Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, has projected a stronger macroeconomic outlook for the country in 2026, forecasting a 4.49 per cent growth in Gross Domestic Product, GDP, a moderation in inflation to about 12.4 per cent, and a rise in external reserves to $51.04 billion, amid sustained reforms, improved oil sector performance and easing monetary conditions.

In its Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria in 2026, the apex bank said the projections point to a “realistic window of opportunity” for macroeconomic stabilisation, following the gains recorded in 2025 despite global and domestic headwinds.

Global backdrop, Nigeria’s 2025 performance

The CBN noted that global economic growth slowed marginally to an estimated 3.20 per cent in 2025 from 3.30 per cent in 2024, reflecting lingering trade tensions and weaker demand in major economies.

However, global inflation moderated to 4.20 per cent, driven largely by lower energy prices and continued normalisation of supply chains, while financial conditions eased as monetary policies became less restrictive and investor confidence improved.

Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s economy recorded a stronger showing in 2025, with growth estimated at 3.89 per cent, compared with 3.38 per cent in 2024. According to the Bank, this performance was supported by improvements in both the oil and non-oil sectors, underscoring the impact of domestic reforms and gradual recovery in productive activities.

Inflationary pressures, though still elevated, moderated in 2025 following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index by the National Bureau of Statistics. Headline inflation, which stood at 24.48 per cent in January 2025, ended the year with an estimated average of 21.26 per cent, shaped by a tight monetary policy stance, relative exchange rate stability and improved coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities.

Monetary, financial sector developments

In the financial sector, expansion in monetary aggregates slowed in 2025 as key interest rates rose, reflecting tight conditions in the money market. However, the CBN eased its policy stance in September 2025 to support domestic growth and investment, signalling a shift towards balancing price stability with output expansion.

The banking system remained broadly stable, with key financial soundness indicators aligned with regulatory benchmarks. The Bank attributed this to its oversight functions, macroprudential guidelines and sustained efforts to strengthen the resilience of financial institutions.

On the fiscal side, Nigeria’s fiscal space improved in 2025, supported by policy and institutional reforms, stable crude oil prices and domestic production. Total public debt stood at 33.98 per cent of GDP as at end-June 2025, with domestic debt accounting for 52.86 per cent and external debt 47.14 per cent, remaining within generally acceptable thresholds.

External sector gains

The external sector recorded a positive performance in 2025, with a balance of payments surplus estimated at $5.80 billion. External reserves rose to about $45.01 billion, up from $40.19 billion in 2024, supported by higher capital inflows, improved export receipts and expanding domestic refining capacity.

The relative stability in the foreign exchange market was buoyed by domestic reforms, including market-oriented FX policies, as well as increased inflows from portfolio investors and exporters.

2026 outlook: growth, inflation, reserves

Looking ahead, the CBN projects that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.49 per cent in 2026, driven by continued gains from broad-based structural reforms and a gradually easing monetary policy stance.

These, the Bank said, are expected to further improve the business environment, enhance investor confidence and support private-sector-led growth.

The growth momentum is also expected to be complemented by increased production and investment in the oil sector, supported by improved security surveillance and gains from enhanced domestic refining capacity.

Headline inflation is projected to moderate sharply to an estimated average of about 12.94 per cent in 2026, driven by declining food prices and lower premium motor spirit, PMS, costs. The Bank expressed optimism that sustained reforms and improved supply conditions would help anchor inflation expectations.

Growth in monetary aggregates in 2026 is expected to be influenced largely by exchange rate movements, fiscal operations, election-related spending and continued implementation of prudential measures. Meanwhile, the capital market is projected to remain bullish, supported by the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise, rising investor confidence and policy measures aimed at fostering growth.

Fiscal, debt outlook

The fiscal outlook for 2026 is described as optimistic, driven by sustained non-oil revenue mobilisation and continued implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025, alongside other reforms. The Federal Government’s retained revenue and expenditure are projected at ₦35.51 trillion and ₦47.64 trillion, respectively, resulting in a provisional fiscal deficit of ₦12.14 trillion, equivalent to about 3.01 per cent of GDP.

Public debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to rise modestly to 34.68 per cent by end-2026, from 33.98 per cent as at June 2025, reflecting expected new borrowings to finance the deficit. The CBN stressed the importance of keeping the debt strategy aligned with fiscal rules to ensure sustainability.

Stronger external position

The positive trend in the external sector is expected to be sustained in 2026. The current account surplus is projected to rise significantly to $18.81 billion, supported by strong exports, steady remittance inflows, increased oil and gas output, improved domestic refining capacity and rising global demand from key trading partners.

Portfolio investment inflows and external borrowings are expected to keep the financial account in a net borrowing position of $10.15 billion, while the International Investment Position is projected to record a net borrowing position of $69.58 billion, reflecting increased capital inflows attracted by relatively high yields.

Reforms in the foreign exchange market are expected to sustain exchange rate stability, while external reserves are projected to rise further to $51.04 billion in 2026, strengthening Nigeria’s external buffers.

Risks to outlook

Despite the optimistic projections, the CBN cautioned that the outlook for the domestic economy remains susceptible to several risks. Unanticipated headwinds could derail the expected deceleration in inflation, particularly if fiscal expenditure rises disproportionately above benchmarks or if a sudden deterioration in global financial conditions triggers capital reversals and renewed exchange rate volatility.

Growth prospects could also be adversely affected if a reversal of the expected disinflation trend necessitates renewed monetary tightening. In addition, unfavourable climatic conditions, disruptions to crude oil production and security challenges could dampen output growth, impair budget implementation and weaken overall macroeconomic performance.

The Bank also warned that continued geopolitical tensions and a re-escalation of protectionist trade policies could negatively affect Nigeria’s trade balance and exchange rate stability. In the financial sector, a significant rise in non-performing loans could weaken banks’ balance sheets and pose systemic risks, while concentration risks arising from the ongoing recapitalisation exercise could crowd out other issuers and trigger investor fatigue.

Policy stance

In response to these risks, the CBN reaffirmed its commitment in 2026 to balancing the objectives of price stability and supporting output growth. The Bank said it would deploy appropriate policy instruments to attract foreign investment, consolidate stability in the foreign exchange market and enhance financial stability.

It also pledged to deepen the operational integration of the Global Standing Instruction framework across financial institutions, strengthen credit discipline and enhance cybersecurity regulations.

On the fiscal side, the Bank underscored the need to broaden the tax net and establish a more efficient and equitable tax regime through effective implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025, as well as ensuring that borrowing remains consistent with fiscal sustainability rules.

Overall, the CBN said the 2026 outlook presents an opportunity to consolidate recent gains, sustain macroeconomic stability and place Nigeria on a firmer path of inclusive, private-sector-led growth, provided key risks are effectively managed.

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Elumelu retires as UBA Chairman, Nnorom named successor

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By Babajide Komolafe

United Bank for Africa, UBA Plc, has announced the retirement of its Group Chairman, Tony Elumelu   and the appointment of Mr. Emmanuel Nnorom as his successor. 

In a statement announcing the board leadership change filed with the Nigerian Exchange, NGX, the bank stated: “Mr. Tony O. Elumelu, Group Chairman of UBA, will  retire from the Board of Directors of UBA  with effect from 21 August 2026, upon the completion of the maximum 12-year tenure  prescribed for Non-Executive Directors of Banks by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

“At its meeting held on 6 July 2026, the Board accepted Mr. Elumelu’s retirement letter and elected Mr. Emmanuel N. Nnorom, a Non-Executive  Director of the Bank, as his successor, with effect from 21 August 2026.

“The Board places on record its profound appreciation to Mr. Elumelu for his visionary leadership and exceptional contribution to the growth, transformation and institutional strength of the UBA Group.

“Mr. Nnorom is a chartered accountant with over forty years’ experience in banking, finance and audit. He brings to the role, extensive leadership  experience and deep institutional knowledge of UBA.”

Commenting on his retirement, Mr. Tony O. Elumelu said: “Serving United Bank for Africa has been one of the great privileges of my career. UBA has a unique competitive position, across Africa and globally, and I leave the Board with great confidence in UBA’s future. Emmanuel Nnorom is a leader of integrity, experience and sound judgement, and I am confident that the Bank will continue to thrive under his leadership.

Speaking on his appointment, Nnorom said: “I am honoured by the trust the Board has placed in me and deeply conscious of the legacy I inherit. I look forward to working with my  colleagues on the Board, Management and our staff across all our markets to sustain UBA’s momentum and continue delivering long-term value to our shareholders, customers and stakeholders.”

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Dangote, major marketers cut petrol depot prices as FG mounts pressure

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•IPMAN targets sub-N800/litre

By Udeme Akpan &  Obas Esiedesa

Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market witnessed another round of price reductions on Monday, with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and several major fuel marketers lowering depot prices for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, and diesel.

This development comes at the backdrop of pressures from the Federal Government (FG) as well as growing competition and improving product availability.

Earlier yesterday before the price adjustments, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, told a stakeholders’ meeting that the current retail price of petrol does not reflect the sharp decline in price of crude oil.

The meeting, convened by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), was attended by representatives of the Dangote Refinery, Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), IPMAN, Depots and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN), Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners (NARTO), and Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN).

The latest mid-day depot price report showed that Dangote Refinery reduced it’s ex-depot petrol price in Lagos by N3 per litre, from N1,079 to N1,076 per litre, while maintaining its diesel price at N1,500 per litre.

The reduction comes as several marketers also adjusted their prices downward in an apparent bid to remain competitive in an increasingly price-sensitive market.

Among the major Lagos depots, NIPCO cut its petrol price by N2 to N1,076 per litre, while Pinnacle lowered its price by N3 to N1,075 per litre. Sahara, AIPEC, and African Terminal each reduced prices by N4, bringing their petrol prices to N1,075 per litre.

Aiteo maintained its petrol price at N1,075 per litre.

Diesel prices also softened across several depots. Rain Oil reduced it’s AGO price by N15 to N1,430 per litre, while Ibeto, Duport, and Ibachem all cut prices to N1,430 per litre. Dangote Refinery, however, retained its diesel price at N1,500 per litre.

In Port Harcourt, marketers recorded even steeper reductions. Matrix slashed its petrol price by N8 to N1,087 per litre and cut diesel by N55 to N1,465 per litre, representing the biggest diesel price reduction recorded during the trading session.

Sigmund also reduced its petrol price by N12 to N1,082 per litre, although it raised its diesel price slightly by N2 to N1,463 per litre.

The downward trend extended to other regions. In Calabar, Fynfield reduced its petrol price by N7 to N1,090 per litre, while Soroman lowered its price by N5 to the same level.

In Warri, Matrix and Prudent both reduced petrol prices by N5 to N1,085 per litre. On the diesel side, Prudent cut its price by N25 to N1,475 per litre, while A.Y.M. Shafa lowered its diesel price by N3 to N1,455 per litre.

Industry analysts said the latest adjustments reflect heightened competition among suppliers following increased domestic refining capacity and relatively stable international crude oil prices.

Speaking after a stakeholders’ meeting on Cost-Reflective Pricing of PMS Lokpobiri said while the government did not interfere when petrol prices rose in response to higher crude oil prices, there was now no justification for maintaining current pump prices with Brent crude trading below $70 per barrel.

“NMDPRA never faulted anybody as far as the price was concerned because we are operating a fully deregulated economy.

“But deregulation doesn’t mean excessive profiteering. The Petroleum Industry Act also places responsibility on NMDPRA to ensure that steps are taken to prevent unnecessary profiteering.

“When Brent crude was about $118 per barrel, prices adjusted rapidly. Now that crude prices have dropped significantly, why has the pump price not come down in the same way?” he asked.

The Minister said discussions with marketers were constructive and would continue until a framework was agreed to ensure petrol prices better reflected developments in the global crude oil market.

“We had very fruitful and frank discussions with the marketers and leaders of the downstream sector with a view to driving down the price of PMS. The engagements are still ongoing.

“We told them the concerns of Nigerian consumers, and they have agreed to go back and think of what concrete steps can be taken. Discussions are ongoing, and we believe we are getting somewhere,” he said.

Also speaking, Chief Executive of NMDPRA, Mallam Rabiu Umar, said the current disconnect between falling international crude prices and sustained domestic retail PMS prices made the engagement with marketers necessary.

He noted that previous consultations with stakeholders had helped ease prices in the domestic Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market and expressed confidence that similar dialogue would deliver positive results for petrol consumers.

“Deregulation is not a licence for market distortion or unfair consumer pricing. Sustainable profitability for marketers and consumer welfare are not mutually exclusive,” Umar said.

Meanwhile, IPMAN said petrol prices could decline below N800 per litre as independent marketers begin purchasing products directly from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

IPMAN National President, Abubakar Garima, said the association had already reduced petrol prices by about N125 per litre across the country and would continue to lower prices whenever product acquisition costs decline.

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Recapitalisation: Companies with outstanding claims will not be relicensed — NAICOM

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By Rosemary Iwunze

As the insurance recapitalisation deadline of July 31st 2026 draws near, the National Insurance Commission, NAICOM, has stated that it will not re-license any company with outstanding claims. 

In a letter to all Managing Director/CEOs of insurance companies, issued yesterday, titled: “Regulatory Directive – Settlement of Discharged Claims as A Precondition for Re-Licensing Pursuant to the Ongoing Recapitalization Exercise” NAICOM noted that the move is part of  efforts to ensure that the exercise achieves its intended objectives.

The letter stated: “The ongoing recapitalization exercise is aimed at strengthening the financial capacity, resilience, and overall stability of the insurance sector. As part of efforts to ensure that this exercise achieves its intended objectives and enhances public confidence in the insurance market, all insurance companies are hereby directed to fully settle all outstanding duly discharged claims. Please note that this is a mandatory pre condition for being certified as having fulfilled the statutory recapitalization requirement and the Commission’s regulatory clearance.

“Accordingly, all insurance companies are required to Identify, reconcile all discharged claims currently outstanding in their records and thereafter, ensure full settlement of these claims to beneficiaries without further delay. A report of the reconciled discharged claims signed by the Managing Director/CEO and evidence of settlement of these claims shall be submitted to the Commission on or before 21th of July 2026. 

“Please note that compliance with this directive is a critical regulatory criterion for eligibility, confirmation, and re licensing of all insurance/reinsurance companies after the conclusion of the ongoing recapitalization exercise. All insurance/reinsurance companies are required to ensure strict compliance with the content of this regulatory directive.”

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