Business
IMF upgrades Nigeria’s 2026 growth outlook to 4.4%

•Urges FG to rebuild fiscal buffers
By Babajide Komolafe, Economy Editor
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth forecast for Nigeria to 4.4 per cent in 2026, citing improved macroeconomic conditions and reform momentum.
The Fund disclosed this in its January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, titled, “Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces,” released yesterday.
According to the IMF, Nigeria’s economy is expected to maintain a steady expansion path, rising from 4.1 per cent in 2024 to 4.2 per cent in 2025, before accelerating to 4.4 per cent in 2026. The new estimate represents a 0.2 percentage point upward revision from the Fund’s October 2025 projection.
Regional and global outlook
The IMF said Nigeria’s improved outlook mirrors a broader pickup across sub-Saharan Africa, where growth is projected to reach 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027. The Fund attributed the regional performance to “macroeconomic stabilisation and continued reform efforts” across key economies.
At the global level, the IMF projected growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026, noting that the world economy remains resilient despite persistent uncertainties. The outlook, the Fund said, reflects a “balancing of divergent forces,” as the negative effects of changing trade policies are being offset by rising investment in technology and artificial intelligence (AI).
Commodity prices and downside risks
For Nigeria, the IMF identified energy prices as a critical factor shaping the 2026 outlook. The Fund projected that “energy commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 per cent in 2026,” largely due to weak global demand.
However, the report noted that oil prices are being supported by what it described as a “soft price floor,” driven by coordinated production management by OPEC+ and crude stockpiling by China, helping to limit downside pressures.
Despite the improved forecast, the IMF warned that “risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside.” These risks include: “Escalating geopolitical tensions” in the Middle East and Ukraine, with potential spillovers to supply chains; “Renewed trade tensions and protectionist measures,” which could heighten global uncertainty; and High public debt and fiscal deficits,” capable of exerting upward pressure on long-term interest rates.
Policy direction
To sustain growth, the IMF urged Nigerian authorities to focus on “rebuilding fiscal buffers” and pressing ahead with “structural reforms without delay.”
The Fund stressed that “central bank independence remains critical for macroeconomic stability,” especially in an environment of heightened global volatility. It also cautioned that any “discretionary fiscal support should be well targeted and include clear sunset provisions” to ensure such measures remain temporary.
The IMF concluded that Nigeria’s ability to meet its 2026 growth target will depend on the “consistent implementation of reforms” and the country’s capacity to withstand domestic and external shocks as the global economy continues to adjust.
The post IMF upgrades Nigeria’s 2026 growth outlook to 4.4% appeared first on Vanguard News.
Business
FG omitted N8.8trn spending worth 2% of GDP from recent budgets — IMF
By Yinka Kolawole, with agency report
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has disclosed that the Federal Government (FG) failed to capture public expenditure equivalent to about two per cent of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in recent national budgets, creating a mismatch between the country’s reported fiscal deficit and its actual financing needs.
IMF’s Resident Representative in Nigeria, Christian Ebeke, made the disclosure on Wednesday during a meeting with business executives in Lagos.
Vanguard Newspaper’s findings indicate that in 2025, Nigeria’s nominal GDP was N441.5 trillion. Government expenditure accounted for approximately 11.73% of this GDP. However, an additional N8.83 trillion in public spending—equivalent to about 2% of the GDP—was unrecorded in official budgets, distorting the country’s actual fiscal deficit and borrowing needs
According to Ebeke, the omission has made Nigeria’s fiscal deficit appear lower than its true borrowing requirement, as some capital expenditure was excluded from budget documents and implementation reports.
Ebeke explained that the unreported spending was largely tied to major government projects executed outside the budget framework, making it more difficult to accurately assess the country’s fiscal position and the scale of public investment.
“So far, we think that there are about two per cent of GDP of expenditure that were not reported that should be reported and should be recorded, so that this statistical discrepancy will disappear,” he said.
He noted that incomplete fiscal reporting also complicates coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, as policymakers may be working without a complete picture of the government’s financing obligations.
The IMF official said the Nigerian authorities had begun addressing the gap by revising budget legislation to accommodate previously unrecorded expenditure. However, he stressed that updated budget implementation reports would be required to fully reflect the changes.
Ebeke emphasised that greater fiscal transparency is critical to strengthening public financial management, warning that off-budget spending raises concerns over procurement practices, accountability and oversight.
His remarks come on the heels of the IMF’s latest Article IV consultation on Nigeria, which commended the Federal Government’s macroeconomic reforms for improving economic stability and boosting investor confidence.
The Fund, however, cautioned that while the reforms have stabilised the economy, they are yet to deliver broad-based improvements in living standards and remain vulnerable to external shocks, including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Business
Rev360 Crash: LCCI demands CIT deadline extension, penalty waiver
By Yinka Kolawole
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has urged the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) to immediately extend the June 30, 2026 deadline for filing Company Income Tax (CIT) returns by one month.
This, according LCCI, follows what it saw as widespread technical failures on the newly deployed Rev360 tax platform that left thousands of companies unable to comply with the statutory deadline.
In a statement, yesterday, Director General of LCCI, Dr. Chinyere Almona, argued that while some businesses waited until the final day to file their returns, the prolonged disruption of the portal on the deadline day made compliance impossible for many taxpayers.
According to her, Rev360, which was launched barely two months ago, suffered prolonged downtime on June 30, triggering login failures, validation errors and unsuccessful submissions as companies raced to meet the filing deadline.
“The failure was that of the platform, not the taxpayers,” she said, stressing that deploying a new digital tax system shortly before a major compliance deadline inevitably comes with operational challenges, particularly under heavy traffic.
Almona noted that the predictable surge in last-minute filings exposed the platform’s inadequate capacity, leaving many businesses locked out of the system at a critical period.
She called on NRS to take three immediate steps to restore confidence in the tax administration process: extend the CIT filing deadline by one month; waive all penalties for companies that attempted to file on or before June 30 but were prevented by the system outage; and urgently strengthen the capacity and stability of the Rev360 platform before the next filing cycle.
The LCCI DG said a prompt announcement of the deadline extension and penalty waiver would calm growing anxiety within the business community and prevent unnecessary disputes arising from a failure beyond taxpayers’ control.
Business
Power failure costs Nigeria jobs, investments — APFFLON
By Providence Ayanfeoluwa
The Africa Association of Professional Freight Forwarders and Logistics of Nigeria (APFFLON) has challenged the Minister of Power, Joseph Tegbe, to translate recent assurances on electricity sector reforms into visible improvements in power supply.
The group maintained that Nigerians can no longer afford the economic consequences of persistent electricity failures.
In a statement signed by its National President, Otunba Frank Ogunojemite, on Tuesday, APFFLON described the electricity crisis as one of the biggest impediments to Nigeria’s economic growth, industrialisation and investment drive. According to him, no nation can build a globally competitive economy while grappling with chronic power shortages.
He stated: “No nation can build a globally competitive economy while operating in darkness. Stable electricity is not a luxury—it is the foundation upon which industries grow, investors gain confidence, jobs are created and businesses flourish.
“The cost of inadequate electricity is being paid daily by manufacturers, freight forwarders, importers, exporters and ordinary Nigerians. Businesses are shutting down, investors are relocating to countries with more reliable infrastructure, and unemployment continues to rise.”
Ogunojemite lamented that businesses across the country still rely heavily on diesel and petrol generators to sustain operations, a situation that has significantly increased production costs and weakened the competitiveness of Nigerian enterprises. He noted that the cost of doing business in Nigeria remains among the highest on the African continent, largely because of inadequate electricity supply.
“The Minister has an opportunity to leave a lasting legacy. Nigerians will judge this administration not by the number of conferences held or policies announced, but by whether electricity becomes stable, affordable and accessible”.
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