Politics
TINUBU, ATIKU, OBI: Battle for North’s votes intensifies
By Luminous Jannamike, Abuja
Abuja has a way of transforming seemingly routine political exchanges into conversations that echo far beyond the Federal Capital Territory.
On any given day, the city’s hotels, private residences and political party offices double as informal negotiating tables where governors, former ministers, lawmakers and party strategists quietly take the measure of one another.
Alliances are tested over breakfast meetings, political futures are debated in hushed conversations, and a single public statement can alter the calculations of men already looking beyond tomorrow’s headlines to the presidential contest of 2027.
It was against that backdrop that an exchange between former Kano State governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and former Borno State governor, Ali Modu Sheriff, reverberated across Nigeria’s political establishment.
Sheriff, speaking on the unfolding realignments ahead of the next presidential election during an interview on Channels TV’s Politics Today, argued that Northern voters would never support Peter Obi. Kwankwaso dismissed the claim, insisting that no individual possessed the authority to speak on behalf of the entire North.
The disagreement quickly became the subject of television debates, newspaper commentaries and endless discussions across political circles.
Yet seasoned observers recognised that the exchange was never really about Peter Obi or any single presidential hopeful. It was about something much deeper. Who, after Muhammadu Buhari, can credibly claim to understand, or command, the political heartbeat of Northern Nigeria? It is a question that now sits at the centre of every serious electoral calculation.
For decades, politicians have spoken of the North as though it were a single electoral fortress capable of delivering victory to whoever secured its loyalty.
Since Buhari left office, that assumption has hardened into political folklore. Across party lines, aspirants continue to invoke what has become one of the most enduring expressions in Nigeria’s electoral vocabulary: ‘Buhari’s 12 million votes.’
To some, it represents an enormous political inheritance waiting to be claimed. To others, it is an exaggeration that has outlived the political circumstances that created it. As the race towards 2027 gathers momentum, that distinction may prove decisive.
The Legend That Refuses to Die
Long before it became shorthand for Northern political influence, Buhari’s electoral appeal was built patiently through years of opposition politics.
Following his return to democratic politics after military rule, the retired general fashioned an image that resonated deeply with millions of ordinary Northerners. To supporters, he embodied discipline, personal integrity and an uncommon willingness to challenge an entrenched political establishment they believed had become distant from everyday struggles.
Across Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Kebbi, Zamfara, Yobe and parts of Bauchi, Buhari’s campaigns developed an emotional intensity rarely seen in contemporary Nigerian politics. His supporters did not merely attend rallies; they identified with a movement that portrayed him as a leader who understood their frustrations with poverty, corruption and insecurity.
His repeated defeats appeared only to deepen that loyalty. After losing presidential elections in 2003, 2007 and 2011, Buhari’s supporters remained convinced that their candidate represented an alternative to a political order that had failed them. The perception transformed him from an ordinary opposition politician into a symbol of resistance for many across the core North.
Somewhere along the way, that loyalty acquired a number: ‘Twelve million votes.’
The phrase gradually evolved from political shorthand into accepted wisdom. It was repeated at campaign rallies, party meetings and television studios until it acquired an authority rarely subjected to scrutiny. Yet the electoral record tells a more complicated story.
Counting Buhari’s Millions
Official results released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) reveal that Buhari’s popularity was both remarkable and highly dependent on political context.
In the 2003 presidential election, he secured more than 12 million votes nationwide against incumbent President Olusegun Obasanjo. The result established him as the undisputed face of opposition politics, drawing overwhelming support from much of the North-West and North-East.
But the assumption that those votes constituted a permanent Northern voting bloc begins to unravel four years later.
In 2007, contesting against the late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, a fellow Northerner and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Buhari’s vote collapsed to just over six million. Although that election was widely criticised by domestic and international observers, the dramatic decline nevertheless demonstrated that political support was shaped by circumstances rather than inherited sentiment alone.
By 2011, Buhari’s support rebounded to more than 12 million votes, reaffirming his extraordinary personal appeal. His eventual victory in 2015, however, owed as much to political engineering as personal popularity.
The merger that brought together the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and factions of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) produced one of the most consequential coalitions in Nigeria’s democratic history. Buhari supplied enormous credibility and grassroots support across much of the North. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and other alliance partners expanded the coalition into regions where Buhari had previously struggled. The alliance changed the mathematics of Nigerian presidential elections.
Buhari’s re-election in 2019 reinforced his dominance, particularly across the North-West and North-East. Yet even those victories reflected the strength of an organised national coalition rather than a solitary political phenomenon.
The numbers, properly understood, challenge one of Nigeria’s most persistent electoral myths. Buhari possessed immense political capital. But no election demonstrates that millions of votes belonged to him permanently, or that they could automatically pass to another politician.
North: A Region That Has Never Been One
The temptation to speak of ‘the North’ as though it were a single political entity is almost as old as Nigeria itself.
During the First Republic, the Northern People’s Congress, NPC, projected formidable influence under the leadership of the Sardauna of Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello. Yet beneath that dominance existed competing political traditions.
In Kano, Mallam Aminu Kano’s Northern Elements Progressive Union, NEPU, championed a populist movement that challenged the conservative establishment. The contest between the NPC and NEPU revealed that Northern politics had never been entirely uniform; it contained competing visions of leadership, governance and social justice.
The pattern survived successive political transitions. The National Party of Nigeria, NPN, inherited much of the establishment tradition during the Second Republic, while the People’s Redemption Party, PRP, carried forward Aminu Kano’s populist philosophy.
Military rule interrupted partisan competition but not political identity. When democracy returned in 1999, familiar fault lines re-emerged beneath new party platforms. The All People’s Party, APP, became the All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP.
Buhari later established the CPC after disagreements within the opposition. The CPC ultimately joined forces with the ACN, ANPP and others to form the APC ahead of the watershed 2015 election.
The names changed. The underlying diversity did not. Northern Nigeria has never voted as one homogeneous bloc.
Kano’s politics have long differed from those of Kaduna. Borno’s priorities cannot simply be mapped onto Plateau’s realities. The electoral concerns of Benue, Kogi and Kwara often diverge sharply from those of Katsina, Sokoto or Jigawa.
Religion, ethnicity, economic opportunity, education, urbanisation and security all shape voting behaviour in different ways. That complexity has only deepened over the past decade.
The rise of Kwankwasiyya in Kano demonstrated the continuing power of state-based political movements. In parts of the North-East, insecurity increasingly became the defining electoral issue.
Across the North-Central, identity, land disputes and religious coexistence continued to influence political choices in ways that differed markedly from the Muslim-majority North-West.
Meanwhile, expanding urban centres such as Abuja, Kaduna and Ilorin have produced a generation of younger voters whose political priorities are increasingly shaped by economic opportunity, technology and governance rather than inherited partisan loyalties.
If Buhari represented the last great unifying political figure across much of the region, the North he left behind appears considerably more fragmented than the one he first mobilised two decades earlier.
Can Political Loyalty Be Inherited?
History offers little evidence that charisma can be transferred like family property.
Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s ideological influence survived his lifetime, but his electoral coalition evolved in different directions. Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe remained one of Nigeria’s most revered nationalist figures without producing an undisputed political heir. Even the symbolic legacy of Chief M.K.O. Abiola ultimately became larger than any individual politician who sought to invoke it. Buhari’s case is no different.
His appeal rested on a unique combination of personality, timing and political circumstance that proved exceptionally difficult to replicate.
The 2023 presidential election highlighted that reality. Rather than consolidating behind one dominant Northern candidate, voters dispersed across multiple political platforms. Tinubu won significant support and ultimately secured the presidency. Atiku Abubakar retained influence across large parts of the North-East and North-West. Kwankwaso transformed Kano into an NNPP fortress. Peter Obi expanded his appeal among younger and urban voters, particularly in parts of the North-Central.
local leaders now circulate through smartphones, often beyond the reach of traditional gatekeepers.
That transformation has made Northern politics simultaneously more open and less predictable.
Beyond the Myth
The enduring fascination with Buhari’s so-called ’12 million votes’ says as much about Nigeria’s political imagination as it does about Buhari himself.
Political myths survive because they simplify complicated realities. It is easier to believe that one man commands an entire region than to confront the diversity that has always existed beneath the surface.
The historical record tells a different story. Northern Nigeria has consistently produced competing political traditions, from the rivalry between the Northern People’s Congress and the Northern Elements Progressive Union during the First Republic to the ideological contest between the National Party of Nigeria and the People’s Redemption Party in the Second Republic, and later the emergence of the APP, ANPP, CPC and APC.
Each generation has produced influential leaders. None has spoken permanently for every Northern voter.
Buhari came closer than most because his appeal transcended conventional party politics. His personal reputation, military background, anti-corruption message and repeated electoral defeats combined to create an emotional bond with millions of supporters that few politicians have managed to replicate.
But even that support was never absolute. Election results fluctuated according to opponents, alliances and prevailing national conditions.
The evidence suggests that Buhari’s greatest political asset was not ownership of Northern votes but an unusual ability to persuade diverse constituencies to rally behind him at particular moments in Nigeria’s political history.
The Election That Could Rewrite the North
As 2027 approaches, every major political platform appears convinced that Northern Nigeria remains the decisive battleground.
The APC believes incumbency, governance and an extensive network of elected officials provide its strongest advantages.
The opposition coalition argues that economic hardship and public dissatisfaction have created the conditions for political change.
The ADC seeks to consolidate its influence where its grassroots structures remain strongest.
The NDC hopes to expand its appeal among younger, urban and issue-driven voters.
Each strategy rests on a different reading of the same electorate. Yet they all confront a common reality. Northern Nigeria is no longer responding to a single political rhythm.
The exchange between Kwankwaso and Ali Modu Sheriff captured that changing landscape more clearly than either participant may have intended.
One insisted that no individual could presume to speak for the region. The other argued from long-held assumptions about Northern political behaviour. Between those positions lies the uncertainty that will define the next presidential election.
Back in Abuja, where political conversations often begin long before campaign posters appear on the streets, the debate over who commands the North continues in hotel lobbies, private meetings and party headquarters.
Outside those rooms, however, a different calculation is unfolding.
In the markets, where traders worry about the rising cost of goods; in the farming communities of Benue struggling with insecurity; in the lecture theatres of Abuja and Nasarawa filled with students anxious about employment; and in the rebuilding communities of the North-East seeking lasting peace, political influence is being measured less by inherited loyalty than by the promise of competent governance.
That may prove to be the defining lesson of the post-Buhari era. Perhaps the enduring question before Nigeria is no longer who inherits Muhammadu Buhari’s mythical ’12 million votes.’
It is whether Northern Nigeria has entered a new political age; one in which no single politician can plausibly claim ownership of its electoral imagination, and where victory belongs instead to the leader most capable of earning, rather than assuming, the confidence of a region that has learned to speak in many voices.
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The Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, presidential candidate, Peter Obi, says if he were Nigerian president he would do everything possible to make opposition parties strong and participatory in governance.
Obi made this known during an interview with media entrepreneur, Chude Jideonwo, aired on Saturday.
According to him, what the politicians and political parties should be doing now to bring the country and other ideas together to work for the interest of the citizens.
When asked if president Bola Tinubu believes his own party is the strongest party to rescue the country, Obi said no one party has a monopoly on ideas that make society work.
“If I’m the president of this country, I will do everything possible to make opposition parties strong and participatory in governance.
“The more you bring everybody together, the more we discuss it, the more we consult, the better result,” he said.
Recall that Obi was among those that formed the opposition coalition under the umbrella of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, in July 2025, and officially joined it on December 31, 2025.
However, in May 2026, the former Anambra state governor left the ADC for the NDC, citing internal divisions and court cases.
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The National Chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, has uploaded all of its candidates for the 2027 general elections on the Candidate Nomination Portal of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.
The national chairman of the party, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, made this announcement in a statement on Saturday.
Yilwatda said the APC confirmed that it has submitted a total of 471 candidates, comprising the presidential ticket, 109 senatorial candidates, and 360 candidates for the House of Representatives.
He expressed satisfaction with the achievement, describing it as a significant milestone for the ruling party.
“I congratulate our candidates, leaders, and members of APC on the successful 100% upload of our Presidential, Vice Presidential, Senate, and House of Representatives candidates on the INEC Candidate Nomination Portal.
“With this milestone achieved, our focus now shifts to mobilization and preparations for a successful campaign and decisive victory at the polls,” he said.
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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s decision to retain Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate for the 2027 presidential election has triggered fresh political debates across the country, with analysts, party supporters and voters offering different interpretations of the move.
It would be recalled that on Friday, the Nigerian president and presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, retained Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate for the 2027 presidential election.
While some describe the decision as a strategic calculation that could strengthen the APC’s chances of retaining power, others argue it reinforces concerns over the party’s Muslim-Muslim ticket and national inclusiveness.
In separate exclusive interviews with DAILY POST, analysts and prospective voters shared contrasting views on the implications of the President’s decision.
Muslim-Muslim ticket still a winning formula for APC – Aminu Rabiu
A political analyst in Kano, Aminu Rabiu has said the All Progressives Congress (APC) believes its Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket remains a winning formula ahead of the 2027 general election.
According to him, the party retained Vice President Kashim Shettima because it expects the combination to once again deliver victory.
Speaking in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST, Aminu said President Bola Tinubu’s decision to retain Shettima signals unity, continuity and confidence within the ruling party.
“It means there is relative understanding, cohesion and unity within the ruling APC,” he said.
“It means that continuing with Kashim Shettima is more rewarding than dropping him. Dropping Shettima would have been politically catastrophic for the ruling APC.”
According to him, the decision shows that the party believes keeping the same ticket will improve its chances of retaining power in 2027.
“It signals continuity. It signals unity. Returning Kashim Shettima will be more rewarding and will not cost the party its bid to retain power in 2027,” he said.
Aminu argued that the APC’s decision was based on political calculations, insisting the same-faith ticket still has electoral value.
“The calculation of the Muslim-Muslim ticket is still relevant and will help them win again in 2027. It will still fetch them a large number of votes in both the North and the southern part of Nigeria.
“Politics is calculation. If they knew it would not favour them, they would not do it. If the result would be catastrophic, they would have changed the calculation.”
Explaining why there was widespread speculation before the announcement, the political analyst said neither President Tinubu, Vice President Shettima nor the APC had publicly discussed whether the vice president would be retained or replaced.
“There were many speculations because neither Tinubu, Shettima nor the APC ever spoke directly about dropping or retaining Kashim Shettima ahead of the 2027 election,” he said.
He noted that many Christian members of the APC had pushed for a change to a Muslim-Christian ticket in the interest of fairness and religious balance.
“There were many speculations, especially from Christian members of the APC. They wanted the party to maintain balance, fairness, justice and unity by choosing a Christian running mate,” he said.
Aminu also said international developments contributed to the debate, particularly comments made by United States President Donald Trump on the alleged persecution of Christians in Nigeria.
“There was also the issue of Donald Trump and America, where there were claims of Christian genocide in Nigeria. Some people thought Tinubu would replace Shettima with a Christian to appease America and neutralise that narrative from America and the West,” he said.
“But Tinubu returned Shettima because he believes keeping him is more rewarding, while dropping him would be catastrophic.”
On the importance of a vice-presidential candidate in determining election outcomes, Aminu said the running mate plays a significant role but is not the deciding factor.
“A vice-presidential candidate is important, but not that decisive. The presidential candidate remains the most important factor,” he said.
“The personality, regional background, ethnicity and religion of the presidential candidate matter more in determining the outcome of a presidential election in Nigeria.”
He explained that Tinubu initially chose Shettima in 2023 to strengthen support in Northern Nigeria.
“The major reason Tinubu picked Shettima in 2023 was to appeal to Muslim voters in the North-West, North-East and other parts of Northern Nigeria, and it worked,” he said.
“They got massive votes in the North-West and North-East. Even in Kano State, where the Kwankwasiyya movement is dominant, Tinubu still secured a very high percentage of votes. Tinubu got over 500,000 votes, while Kwankwaso had over 900,000 votes, showing that the votes were shared.”
According to Aminu, the APC is relying on the same strategy because it proved successful during the last election.
“They tested it in 2023 and it gave them what they wanted. That is why they are determined to test it again in 2027.
“They want to see whether it will produce the same result it produced in the last election. It is a tested and trusted pattern.”
Speaking on the impact of Shettima’s retention in the North-East and the wider North, the analyst maintained that the vice president’s regional, ethnic and religious background remains an important political advantage.
“It has been tested and trusted that a vice-presidential candidate’s regional, ethnic and religious background matters a lot in politics,” he said.
“They believe Shettima helped them secure massive support in the North in 2023, and they want to repeat that success.”
Commenting on the opposition, Aminu said he does not believe opposition parties currently have the strength to pose a serious challenge to the APC.
“It is obvious that the opposition parties have been weakened through court cases, legal battles and internal disputes,” he said.
“I don’t think they can give the ruling party a serious challenge. They may respond with press statements, but the real test will come during the election.”
He further claimed that the ruling party had benefited from divisions within the opposition.
“The APC has succeeded in weakening the main opposition. Before, many opposition leaders such as Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Rotimi Amaechi were together in the ADC, but now they have moved to different political parties,” he said.
“They have been divided, and because of that, I don’t think the opposition can seriously challenge the ruling party. They will try their best, but I don’t think they can neutralise the APC.”
Aminu, however, predicted that although the APC has an advantage, the 2027 presidential election would still be closely contested.
“My prediction is that the ruling party will narrowly return to power.”
“It is going to be a narrow victory, but I believe the APC has a better chance because of its political calculations and the decision to retain the Tinubu-Shettima ticket,” he said.
Removing Shettima could have cost APC north – Political Analyst, Ojo
Also speaking, political analyst, Kabiru Ojo, said that President Tinubu’s decision to retain Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate for the 2027 presidential election saved the All Progressives Congress (APC) from losing support across Northern Nigeria.
Speaking in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST, Ojo said removing Shettima would have created the impression that President Tinubu uses and dumps loyal political allies, a move he believes could have turned many northern political leaders against the APC.
“President Tinubu retaining Kashim Shettima ahead of the 2027 election is a great move for the APC because if Tinubu had rejected Shettima, he would have lost a lot of northern governors,” he said.
“It would have been clear to them that he is a man who uses people and dumps them. That would have remained in their memory.”
According to him, such a decision could have united northern politicians against the President and strengthened the opposition.
“With that, northerners could have united against him to bring him down. The opposition would also have gained more strength because if Shettima had been replaced with a northern Christian, many northern Muslims would have moved to the opposition, especially to Atiku, who is also their son,” he said.
“So, dropping Shettima could have been a great loss to the APC.”
Ojo noted that there had been widespread speculation before the APC announced its vice-presidential candidate, following pressure from the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) for the party to replace the Muslim-Muslim ticket with a Muslim-Christian ticket.
“There was much speculation before the announcement because the Christian Association of Nigeria was pressuring Mr President that if he needed Christian votes, he should change from a Muslim-Muslim ticket to a Muslim-Christian ticket,” he said.
He also claimed that international political developments may have influenced discussions around the choice of a running mate.
“At the same time, he was also looking at international politics and thinking about President Donald Trump’s support. Since Trump had spoken about Christian genocide, he might have thought that choosing a Christian running mate could attract support for his re-election bid.
“However, after looking at both sides, I think he realised that losing the support of northern Muslims would be more damaging. That is why he chose to retain Shettima so the northern Muslims would not unite against him.”
The political analyst said Shettima’s influence within the North-East and among APC governors also played a major role in the decision.
“As Shettima is concerned, the APC governors in the North-East are loyal to him. By retaining him, those governors will continue to work for Tinubu, and that will help him record victory in the North-East.
“But if Shettima was not there, automatically Tinubu would lose the North-East.”
Speaking on the importance of selecting a vice-presidential candidate, Ojo said every presidential candidate must choose someone with strong regional acceptance.
“The choice of a vice president has a significant impact on a presidential election. Choosing a vice president who is widely accepted in his region gives an added advantage to your victory. That is why politicians think carefully before choosing their running mate,” he said.
He also referred to opposition politics, saying the selection of a running mate can shape electoral outcomes.
“That is why the opposition was not happy when Peter Obi left the ADC because there were expectations of an Atiku-Obi ticket. Obi is well accepted in his region, and such a joint ticket would have boosted their votes.”
Ojo further described Shettima as one of President Tinubu’s most loyal political allies, recalling his role during the APC presidential primary of the 2023 election.
“Many APC leaders see Shettima as someone who is very loyal to Mr President. They saw how he took the political bullets for Tinubu during the APC primary election..
“If you remember, after Tinubu made remarks about the late President Muhammadu Buhari during the primary period, many northern leaders became upset. It was Shettima who stepped in, explained Tinubu’s role in Buhari’s victory and calmed the tension.”
He said many party members believed that removing Shettima after such loyalty would have damaged Tinubu’s reputation in the North.
“They believed that if Tinubu could betray someone like Shettima, then there is nobody he cannot betray.
“So if Shettima had been removed, the entire North could have united against him. That would have been a disaster for his re-election.”
Ojo, however, said the outcome of the 2027 election would still depend on the campaign and the mood of northern voters.
“They were lucky to retain Shettima, and that will make the election very tough. But we still do not know what will happen until the campaigns begin because many northern youths are angry with the Tinubu administration,” he said.
“So, let us wait and see whether Shettima can influence victory for Tinubu in the North-East and North-West.”
Commenting on the opposition, Ojo said many of Tinubu’s rivals would have preferred that the President made a different choice.
“For the opposition, they would have welcomed it if Tinubu had chosen a northern Christian. Deep inside, they wanted him to make that mistake,” he said.
“Now that he has retained Shettima, every party will continue its campaign. Atiku will campaign on insecurity and what they see as the government’s failures, while Peter Obi will also continue his campaign.”
He added that although the Muslim-Muslim ticket may still influence some voters, he believes its impact may not be as significant as it was in 2023.
“Obi will still get some votes because of the Muslim-Muslim ticket, but not as much as in 2023 because many Christians have benefited from the Tinubu administration. Because of that, some people may no longer see the Muslim-Muslim ticket as being against any religion,” Ojo said.
Tinubu’s choice to retain Shettima sends wrong message – Jigawa voter
A young voter from Jigawa State, Rabiu Muhammad, criticised the APC for retaining Vice President Kashim Shettima as President Bola Tinubu’s running mate for the 2027 presidential election, describing the decision as one that sends the wrong message to Nigerians.
Muhammad said the APC had opted for continuity by keeping the Tinubu-Shettima ticket, but argued that the move failed to address concerns over religious inclusion and national unity.
“My reaction is that APC has decided to go with continuity. They believe keeping President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima together will help them finish the policies they started,” he said.
He, however, maintained that many Nigerians remain uncomfortable with the Muslim-Muslim ticket.
“Many Nigerians still have concerns about the Muslim-Muslim ticket. For some people, it’s about party loyalty, while for others it’s about fairness and national unity. But to me, it is a colossal mistake to continue with the same-faith ticket for the stability of the national emotion,” he said.
Muhammad also disclosed that the decision had influenced his choice ahead of the 2027 general election, saying he would vote for another candidate.
“Yes, it will influence my voting choice. Elections are about who can represent all Nigerians fairly. When a ticket does not reflect the religious and regional diversity of the country, it sends the wrong message,” he said.
“Because of this, I have decided that in 2027 I will vote for a different option.”
Speaking on the qualities he expects from a vice president, the Jigawa voter said the occupant of the office should be committed to serving every Nigerian, irrespective of religion or region.
“I expect a Vice President to be a leader for all Nigerians, not a section of the country.
“The qualities I look out for in a vice president include integrity, an independent mind, strong experience and competence across different areas of leadership. Such a person should be able to unite Nigerians and put the country’s interest above every other consideration,” he said.
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