By Dapo Akinrefon

On Thursday, May 14, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State declared his intention to run for President on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and Allied Peoples’ Movement, APM, alliance in the 2027 presidential election.

Read Also: 2027: 31 APC Govs endorse Tinubu with 10.99m votes

The declaration, however, seemed to have transformed the politics of Oyo State.

The declaration was not merely the launch of another presidential ambition; it was the unveiling of a broader political experiment rooted in coalition-building, the same strategy that propelled Makinde to power in 2019.

This time, however, the stakes are significantly higher.

Standing before thousands of supporters gathered for a mega rally organised by the PDP and APM, the governor announced a new opposition alliance which he hoped could become the foundation of a national political movement ahead of the 2027 general elections.

MoU between PDP, APM

The event followed the formal signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between both parties at the PDP South-West Secretariat in Ibadan, supervised by the governor and the National Chairman of the APM, Yusuf Mamman Dantalle.

But beyond the symbolism of party agreements and campaign rhetoric lay a deeper political question: can the alliance model that worked effectively in Oyo State be successfully replicated at the national level against the formidable machinery of the All Progressives Congress, APC?

Observers of political events opine that it may define Nigeria’s political direction over the next two years.

The ghost of 2019

Makinde’s emergence as governor in 2019 remained one of the clearest examples of successful opposition coalition politics in recent Nigerian history.

At the time, Oyo politics was deeply fragmented. Yet several opposition parties and influential political figures decided to close ranks in a determined effort to remove the APC from power in the state.

Former Governor Rashidi Ladoja, now the Olubadan of Ibadanland, and leaders from parties such as the ADC, SDP, and ZLP merged their political structures into the PDP in support of Makinde’s candidacy.

How the alliance proved decisive

Makinde defeated APC candidate, Mr Adebayo Adelabu, by polling 515,621 votes against Adelabu’s 357,982.

Observers at the time credited the coalition with neutralising the APC’s dominance by pooling grassroots structures, regional influence and anti-incumbency sentiments into a single electoral force.

Six years later, Makinde appeared convinced that the same formula could become the basis for a national opposition resurgence.

The difference, however, is that coalition politics at the federal level is infinitely more complicated than state-level alliances.

Time to reset Nigeria

At the Ibadan rally, Makinde framed the emerging alliance as a democratic necessity rather than a narrow partisan arrangement.

The governor argued that Nigeria’s democratic foundations were under pressure due to what he described as increasing interference in opposition politics nationwide.

He said the gathering represented more than a political rally, explaining that it was an attempt to retrace the country’s democratic journey and understand how Nigeria arrived at its current political situation.

“We are all here at this mega rally to announce the grand alliance between the People’s Democratic Party and the Allied Peoples’ Movement. We must retrace our steps to understand how we arrived at this point in our political history,” he said.

He further warned that the country was approaching a dangerous political crossroads where democratic competition itself appeared threatened.

“We have found ourselves at a point in our nation’s political history where the very foundations of democracy are being shaken,” he lamented.

The governor accused unnamed political actors of deliberately weakening opposition parties in pursuit of a one-party state.

Makinde said: “We have continued to witness interference in the affairs of opposition parties across our beloved country, with the clear intention of steering Nigeria towards a one-party state.”

His comments reflected a growing sentiment among opposition figures who believed Nigeria’s democratic space is shrinking amid defections, internal crises and the expanding influence of the APC across key political institutions.

While he insisted that genuine democracy could not survive without vibrant political competition, he warned: “Without a multi-party system, there can be no true democracy. So, where is our democracy today?”

Economic hardship as political fuel

While the alliance is fundamentally political, its organisers clearly understood that public frustration over economic conditions may become the opposition’s strongest weapon heading into 2027.

Nigeria is currently grappling with severe inflation, rising food prices, energy costs and worsening living conditions for many households. Security challenges also remain persistent across several parts of the country.

Makinde, who tapped directly into those frustrations during his address, lamented that worsening economic and security realities had forced many Nigerians into daily survival struggles.

“The economic and security situations continue to worsen, forcing the majority of Nigerians into survival mode on a daily basis,” he said.

He lampooned those in authority for treating public office as private property rather than a responsibility entrusted to them by citizens.

“Those entrusted with the responsibility of safeguarding the welfare of the people have instead treated the authority given to them as personal property, to be exercised at their own discretion,” he stated.

This line of criticism signalled what could become the central opposition narrative before 2027, that the APC government has failed to sufficiently cushion the hardship experienced by ordinary Nigerians.

Yet, the challenge for Makinde and his allies will be transforming public frustration into organised electoral momentum.

Beyond party politics

One of the most striking aspects of Makinde’s speech was his effort to redefine opposition politics beyond traditional party structures.

The governor was of the view that the opposition was no longer limited to politicians or political parties but included ordinary Nigerians dissatisfied with the direction of the country.

He said millions of citizens who felt excluded by the current economic and governance realities were already part of the broader opposition movement.

“The opposition in Nigeria is not limited to political parties alone. The opposition is every ordinary Nigerian for whom this country is no longer working,” he declared.

Makinde added that opposition parties remained committed to working together to provide Nigerians with what he described as a credible alternative.

“And the opposition political parties in Nigeria remain committed to working together to present a credible alternative for our people,” he said.

The language was carefully crafted to position the alliance as a populist movement rather than merely an electoral arrangement among elite politicians.

The politics of resistance

The presidential hopeful also sought to present the emerging coalition as an act of resistance against political intimidation and public despair.

The governor argued that Nigerians had been pushed to the brink by worsening conditions and political manipulation, noting that many citizens were being driven towards hopelessness and division.

“For several months now, one question has remained at the forefront of my mind: where do we go from here? Is this truly the path we intend to continue on as a nation?” he asked.

Makinde maintained that there was an expectation in some quarters that Nigerians would become too exhausted by hardship to demand accountability.

“We have been pushed to the brink, with the expectation that we will turn against one another in confusion and desperation,” he stated.

According to him, the ruling establishment assumed that the daily struggle for survival would weaken citizens’ capacity to resist poor governance.

“Their greatest assumption is that we will become too exhausted from the daily struggle to survive to resist or demand better,” he said.

While he argued that the emerging alliance had already disproved assumptions that opposition parties could never unite, he said: “They concluded that the opposition could never unite. I stand before you to say clearly: that was a grave miscalculation.”

Perhaps the most politically symbolic moment of the rally came when Makinde announced what he called the ‘Reset Nigeria Movement’.

Calling on opposition parties to close ranks, Makinde described the alliance between the PDP and APM as the beginning of a larger political coalition.

He urged opposition parties to embrace gradual but deliberate unity, saying, “To the opposition political parties, this is the time for unity, one party at a time. That is exactly what the PDP and APM are demonstrating.“

The governor stressed that the country urgently required fresh leadership and direction, adding, “This is the moment to work together in unity and determination to give our generation the leadership and direction it urgently needs.“

Describing Ibadan as “the city of warriors”, the governor said the new alliance marked the first stage of a broader political journey.

“And so, today, here in my home state, in Ibadan, the city of warriors, the first grand alliance is formed: the alliance between the Peoples Democratic Party and the Allied Peoples’ Movement,” he said.

He explained that the partnership would enable both parties to present candidates across all levels of government.

“This partnership will enable us to present candidates at every level of government, from the Presidency to the State Assemblies, and every office in between,” he declared.

How far can the alliance go?

Despite the excitement generated by the Ibadan rally, the political realities confronting Makinde’s ambition remain daunting.

However, history showed that coalitions frequently struggle with internal contradictions after the initial objective of electoral victory is achieved.

Furthermore, Makinde’s South-West origin introduced another strategic complication.

President Bola Tinubu remained the dominant political figure in the region.

For Makinde to emerge as a serious national contender, he would need not only to fracture APC’s influence in the South-West but also build strong alliances across northern Nigeria and other southern regions. That is a significantly more difficult task than the coalition politics of Oyo State.

Opposition leaders’ push for coalition

Several opposition leaders who spoke at the Ibadan rally attempted to frame the alliance as a response to national disappointment under the APC administration.

Throwing his weight behind the alliance, former Osun State governor, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, linked the coalition directly to unfulfilled promises made during the 2023 elections.

Oyinlola, who addressed the gathering in the Yoruba language, recalled how President Tinubu had campaigned on promises of economic revival and national progress.

“What brought us to this level of alliance? About three and a half years ago, our brother, Bola Tinubu, said it was his turn to become President,” he said.

He noted that Nigerians were promised improvements in electricity supply, the oil sector and economic prosperity.

“He assured Nigerians that the power sector would be revitalised, the oil sector repositioned, and the country would move towards progress and prosperity.

“But where are we today? That was the purpose of the opposition summit in Ibadan, to chart a new course for the country and build a stronger alliance capable of addressing the challenges facing Nigerians”, he said.

Similarly, Oyo PDP chairman Dayo Ogungbenro described the alliance as a major turning point for opposition politics in Nigeria.

Ogungbenro said the coalition reflected a shared determination to strengthen the opposition ahead of 2027.

“This is a significant turning point in our democratic journey. The coming together of the PDP and the APM reflects a shared determination to strengthen the opposition and present a credible alternative to the Nigerian people,” he said.

On his part, APM National Secretary, Mr Oyadeyi Ayodele, argued that the alliance went beyond electoral calculations.

Ayodele, who described the alliance as a democratic necessity aimed at restoring balance and effective governance, said: “This partnership represents a watershed moment for our democracy. It demonstrates that political differences can be set aside when the greater good of the nation is at stake.”

He explained that the coalition intended to confront insecurity and economic hardship through collective action.

“Our collective resolve is to build a credible and united platform capable of addressing the challenges confronting Nigeria, including insecurity and economic hardship,” Ayodele stated.

The long road to 2027

For now, Makinde’s declaration has undoubtedly altered the early political conversation surrounding 2027.

By launching both a presidential bid and an opposition alliance simultaneously, he has positioned himself not merely as another aspirant but as a possible architect of opposition consolidation.

The real test lied ahead: whether opposition parties can sustain unity beyond public declarations; whether Nigerians can be persuaded that the alliance offered a credible governing alternative; and whether Makinde himself can successfully transition from influential governor to national political force.

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