The Head of Research and Programmes at Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI), Oluwafemi John Adebayo, has warned that the credibility of Nigeria’s 2027 general election is already being shaped long before Nigerians head to the polls, saying the country’s democratic future depends on what happens before election day.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST on Monday, Adebayo said while Nigeria appears to be making administrative preparations for the election, the country is yet to address the deeper issues that determine whether an election will be free, fair and credible.

According to him, “The credibility of the 2027 general election will not be decided only on election day. It is already being determined in party primaries, courtrooms, security planning meetings, voter registration centres, newsrooms and the daily decisions of institutions entrusted with protecting Nigeria’s democracy.”

Adebayo noted that the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has published its timetable, political parties have conducted their primaries, candidates are being uploaded to the nomination portal, while voter registration has generated renewed interest among Nigerians.

However, he argued that elections should not be judged only by administrative activities.

“The real question is not whether Nigeria is preparing for the 2027 general election. It is whether Nigeria is preparing for a credible democratic contest,” he said.

He explained that an election can follow its timetable and still fail to inspire public confidence if citizens believe the outcome had been determined before voting begins.

According to him, many Nigerians remain interested in politics despite the country’s economic challenges.

He said voter registration continues to attract participation, while young people are actively engaging in political debates, fact-checking politicians and creating civic content across social media platforms.

“The dominant narrative is often that Nigerians have become apathetic. The evidence suggests something more nuanced. Many citizens have not disengaged from politics; they have become sceptical of institutions,” Adebayo stated.

He added that many citizens now ask whether their votes will truly influence political outcomes.

On political parties, Adebayo said the quality of the 2027 election has already been affected by the conduct of party primaries.

He said the primaries were characterised by elite influence, candidate imposition, money politics, violence, litigation and internal divisions instead of transparent democratic processes.

According to him, governors played significant roles in determining candidates within the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, while opposition parties have also struggled with leadership disputes, parallel structures and court cases.

“Political parties are the gatekeepers of democracy. When they struggle to conduct credible internal elections, the credibility of the general election begins to erode long before the first ballot is cast,” he said.

Speaking on INEC, Adebayo acknowledged that the electoral umpire has continued its preparations by releasing the election timetable, engaging political parties and managing the nomination process.

He, however, said the commission still faces the challenge of rebuilding public trust following the 2023 general election.

“Electoral commissions conduct elections. Public confidence determines whether elections are believed. For INEC, restoring institutional trust may prove just as important as delivering logistical efficiency,” he said.

Adebayo also identified insecurity as one of the biggest threats to the 2027 elections.

He pointed to insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, communal clashes and political violence across different parts of the country, warning that fear could discourage citizens from voting.

He said security agencies must go beyond deploying officers on election day by focusing on intelligence gathering, conflict prevention, coordinated planning and maintaining political neutrality.

He also stressed on the importance of the media and civil society organisations in safeguarding Nigeria’s democracy.

According to him, journalists now do more than cover campaigns, as they also verify information, expose misinformation and investigate electoral irregularities.

He added that civil society groups remain critical through election observation, voter education, conflict monitoring, early warning systems and holding public institutions accountable.

While acknowledging that Nigeria appears largely prepared administratively, Adebayo maintained that the political environment remains uncertain due to unresolved party crises, security concerns, public distrust in electoral institutions and continued court cases involving political parties.

He concluded that Nigeria must focus on strengthening democratic institutions rather than preparing only for election day.

“The election is less than six months away. The more important question is whether Nigeria will spend that time preparing only for an election or preparing for the democracy that gives elections their meaning,” he said.

The National Leader of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, Seriake Dickson, has said that Nigeria’s democracy must survive despite all odds.

Dickson made this assertion in a statement posted on his verified X handle on Wednesday.

He said that the NDC is dealing with the legal and contrived shenanigans of anti-democratic forces, noting that the storm shall pass and become a story of the past.

The former Bayelsa state governor expressed trust in the judiciary to do the right thing according to the law and not allow itself to be used as an instrument to derail democracy.

He lamented that people he raised and supported throughout his life to serve the people turned around and weaponise the instruments of government to sack people from office, victimise innocent citizens, spread unfounded propaganda, and repay the good he did for them, their families, and their communities with wickedness and evil.

“Nigeria’s democracy must survive. Multi-party democracy must survive no matter the different odds we may face in the course of returning Nigeria on the right course.

“I have watched with immense pride and satisfaction that, while I laboured here with my colleagues to strengthen and build our party nationally, droves of leaders and citizens, men and women, young and old, have continued to troop out to register, join, and actively participate in the affairs and activities of our party,” he wrote.

Yiaga Africa has published its pre-election analysis regarding the current circumstances in Osun in anticipation of the upcoming governorship elections next month.

According to Yiaga’s report, the integrity of the governorship election is at risk, noting an increase in the distribution of money or gifts by candidates or their supporters to voters.

Yiaga Africa said that its findings conducted between 14 and 29 June 2026, recorded numerous occurrences of cash and gift distribution by political figures and their supporters during campaign events and community interactions.

The report made available to reporters in Abuja further stated that while some of these distributions were presented as social interventions or charitable programmes, their timing and proximity to the election raise concerns about their potential to unduly influence voters.

“Such incidents were reported in Irepodun, Ola-Oluwa, Olorunda  and Osogbo LGAs. In Ilobu/Erin, Irepodun LGA, observers heard that a group known as the ITK Sisters distributed cash, garri, beans and other food items to residents,” the report added.

It continued, “Similarly, observers reported the distribution of food items by unidentified groups in the Ekerele-Iwara area of Ola-Oluwa LGA, as well as in parts of Olorunda and Osogbo LGAs. A more sophisticated pattern of voter inducement was observed in Ife South LGA. On 7 July 2026, residents of Ara Joshua Village in Osi Ward reportedly received electronic transfers of N10,000 with the narration, ‘Renewed Hope Ambassadors/APC EPYT.’ “

Yiaga Africa said that its observers noted that the payments were linked to an earlier exercise in March 2026, during which individuals visited communities to collect voters’ Voter Identification Numbers, VINs, and National Identification Numbers, NINs.

“The same individuals reportedly returned in June 2026 to obtain beneficiaries’ bank account details before they made the transfers.This emerging data-enabled model of voter inducement represents a growing electoral integrity concern.

“Unlike conventional vote buying at polling units, it occurs well before election day, leaves fewer visible traces, and is more difficult to detect through traditional election observation methods,” Yiaga Africa said.

The organization further reported what it called ‘very limited voter education’ efforts targeted at marginalised groups such as women, youth, and Persons with Disabilities, PWDs. 

“CSO-led campaigns targeting women were only recorded in Irewole and Ola-Oluwa LGA. Youth-targeted voter education campaigns were reported to have been conducted by INEC in Irewole and Ola-Oluwa and by CSO in Ede South LGA. In addition, PWDs targeted campaigns were reported to be conducted by only INEC, in Ola-Oluwa LGA,” it further stated.