•Crop productions dominates with N8.9trn  

By Cynthia Alo

The agricultural sector comprising crop production, livestock, forestry, and fishing  recorded a 3.15 per cent, year-on-year growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to N11.87 trillion in the first quarter of 2026 (Q1’26) from N11.51 trillion in Q1’25.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed this in its GDP report for Q1’26. The report showed crop production remained the dominant driver of  the agric sector, contributing N8.9 trillion in Q1’26 representing an increase of 3.39 per cent YoY from N8.6 trillion in  Q1’25.  

Further analysis showed that the Livestock sub-sector grew to N1.57 trillion in Q1’26 representing a 2.20 per cent increase from N1.54 trillion in Q1’25 while Forestry posted a 4.14 per cent growth to N589.88 billion in Q1’26 from N566.42 billion in Q1’25.

Meanwhile, the Fishing sub-sector recorded  growth of 1.72 per cent, YoY  to N792.92 billion in Q1’26 from N779.49 billion in Q1’25.

The NBS in its GDP Q1’26 report said: “Four sub-activities make up the Agricultural sector: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry, and Fishing.  The sector grew by 9.93% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q1 2026, showing a decrease of 0.11% points from the same quarter of 2025. Looking at the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 6.82%, there was an increase of 3.11% points. Crop production remained the major driver of the sector. This is evident as it accounts for 66.76% of the overall nominal value of the sector in the first quarter of 2026.  

Quarter-on-quarter growth stood at -36.37% in the first quarter of 2026. Agriculture contributed 18.11%  to nominal GDP in the first quarter of 2026. This figure was lower than the rate recorded in the first  quarter of 2025 and lower than the fourth quarter of 2025, which recorded 19.40% and 25.67%,  respectively.”  

“The agricultural sector in the first quarter of 2026 grew by 3.15% (year-on-year) in real terms, an increase of 3.08% points from the corresponding period of 2025, and a decrease of 0.85% points from the preceding quarter, which recorded a growth rate of 4.00%. 

“It grew on a quarter-on-quarter basis at -35.24%. However, the sector contributed 23.16% to aggregate GDP in real terms in Q1 2026, lower than the contribution in the first quarter of 2025 and lower than the contribution in the fourth quarter of 2025, which stood at 23.33% and 28.66%, respectively.”

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By Peter Egwuatu 

The Nigerian stock market reversed its upward trajectory last week with investors losing over N4.915 trillion of their investment listed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited, NGX. 

The development was driven by a sustained profit-taking move across major sectors.

Consequently, the NGX market capitalisation, which represents the total value of stocks listed on the Exchange, declined to N155.593 trillion on Friday from N160.508 trillion the previous week.

Analysts noted that the bearish close, Week on Week, WoW, reflects a combination of portfolio rebalancing, valuation concerns following the market’s remarkable rally, and cautious positioning by investors seeking to preserve gains accumulated over the past several months.

Another major performance indicator, NGX All Share, ASI, which reflects the stock prices movement, also shed 3.1%, closing on Friday at 242,593. 31 points from 250,385.47 points the previous week, an indication that trading sentiment remained largely negative throughout the week under review , with sellers dominating activities across the banking, oil and gas, industrial, consumer goods and insurance sectors. 

Analysis of trading last week shows that losses in FirstHoldco by -11.4% BUA Cement -10.0%, ARADEL -9.5%, MTNN -5.5% and WAPCO 3.5%) contributed significantly to drag the ASI lower. As a result, Month-to-Date, MtD  and Year-to-Date, YtD  returns settled at 0.5% and 56.4%, respectively. Market participation improved as trading volume and value increased by 71.7% WoW and 67.9% WoW respectively. Sectoral performance was broadly negative, as the Oil & Gas Index declined by -5.2%, Industrial Goods Index  -4.4%, Banking Index -3.4%, Insurance Index -1.9% and Consumer Goods Index -0.7%.

Commenting on market outlook, analysts at InvestData Consulting Limited stated: “Looking ahead, the market is likely to experience mixed sentiment as bargain hunting competes with continued profit-taking. While short-term volatility may persist, the medium-to-long-term outlook remains positive, supported by strong corporate fundamentals, improving economic conditions and growing investor confidence in the domestic market. Stocks with resilient earnings profiles, attractive valuations and strong dividend potential are expected to attract renewed demand once the current corrective phase begins to stabilise.

Investors are therefore advised to remain selective, focusing on fundamentally strong companies while taking advantage of opportunities created by market weakness.”

Commenting as well, analysts at Cordros Capital stated: “Looking ahead, we expect market activity to remain cautious and largely range-bound in the near term, given the lack of a meaningful catalyst to spur buying interest.”

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By Etop Ekanem 

Chief Executive Officer of Jumia Group, Francis Dufay, has offered a perspective that placed Nigeria not at the margins of risk, but at the centre of reform, growth and stability.

Speaking during a panel on emerging markets, at the Sohn Conference in New York, Dufay described the period between 2021 and 2024 as one of the most difficult economic cycles in recent memory for African markets, with Nigeria among the hardest hit. 

Sharp currency swings, weakened consumer purchasing power, and inflation created a challenging operating environment, particularly for sectors tied to imports, logistics, payments, and retail demand. For businesses like Jumia, where pricing stability, inventory planning, and payment predictability are critical, the volatility tested resilience.

But according to Dufay, the pressure forced structural responses, arguing that Nigeria’s reform trajectory, particularly under President Bola Tinubu, has marked the beginning of a new macro-cycle. Measures around exchange rate unification, fiscal adjustments, and broader economic restructuring, he suggested, are gradually creating a more transparent and stable operating environment for compliant businesses.

He pointed to Nigeria as a clear case study of reform under strain. “Nigeria was in a tough situation three or four years back,” he noted. 

adding that recent policy shifts are laying the foundations for greater stability. For e-commerce and digital platforms, that stability translates directly into improved pricing models, better supplier relationships, stronger payment flows, and renewed investor confidence.

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