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Consumers express pessimism on macroeconomy, first time since Nov 2025

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By Elizabeth Adegbesan

Consumers have expressed pessimism on the macroeconomy, first time since November 2025, as their overall sentiment stood at -10.3 index points in March compared to 0.8 index point in February.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disclosed this yesterday in its March 2026 Household Expectation Survey Report.

“The Overall Consumer Sentiments in March 2026 stood at -10.3 index points compared to 0.8index points recorded in February 2026, indicating a pessimistic outlook on the macroeconomy for the first time since November 2025.

“The Economic Conditions index posted –14.5 points in March 2026, indicating a pessimistic outlook among Household respondents regarding current economic conditions.

“Family Financial Situation Index stood at –14.7 points in March 2026, reflecting respondents’ pessimistic views about their household finances.

“Family Income Sentiments recorded -1.3 index points in March 2026, indicating a mild pessimistic outlook on Family income.”

The report showed households perceived prices to be high compared to the February 2026 and expects further moderate rise in price in the next six months.

“The Consumer Sentiments Index on price changes registered 40 points in March 2026, indicating that households perceived prices to have risen compared to the previous month.  

“Looking ahead, they expect price levels to remain moderately high over the next six months.

“Most households surveyed (66.4 percent) expect the Nigerian economy to deteriorate if prices increase at a rate higher than the current level.”

On the other hand, the CBN Business Expectation Survey Report for March 2026 showed that businesses were confident in the macroeconony as their Confidence Index stood at 15.6 index point.

“The Confidence index in March 2026 stood at 15.6 index points, reflecting optimism among respondents regarding the macroeconomy. This optimism is expected to improve gradually to 43.9 index points in the next six months.

“All the sectors expressed optimism about the macroeconomy with the Agriculture Sector recording the highest confidence.

“The Mining & Quarrying sector had the highest prospects for employment while the Agriculture sector had the highest plan for expansion in April 2026.

“The Manufacturing sector recorded the highest capacity utilisation in the current month”

However, respondents fingered insufficient power supply (74.5), insecurity (70.9), high/multiple taxes (69.2), high interest rate (66.6), and financial problems (64.3) as the top five (5) business constraints in March 2026, highlighting factors that directly impact operational stability and profitability.

According to CBN, the findings in the review period highlight the need for improvements in energy supply, security conditions, and the regulatory/financial environment to enhance business stability and profitability.

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Banks, insurers, others record 8.5% growth in GDP to N1.93trn

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Breaking: Nigeria’s GDP growth rate slows to 3.8%

By Babajide Komolafe

Financial institutions including banks and insurance firms recorded a 8.5 per cent growth in real Gross Domestic Product, GDP to N1.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, Q1’26 from N1.78 trillion in Q1’25.

The National Bureau of Statistics, NBS disclosed this in its GDP report for Q1’26. The report showed that the   financial institutions sub-sector remained the dominant driver of activity, contributing N1.75 trillion in Q1 2026, up from N1.61 trillion in the corresponding period of 2025. This reflects an increase of about 8.4%, underscoring sustained expansion in banking operations, credit delivery, and financial intermediation.

The insurance sub-sector also recorded steady growth, rising to N180.95 billion in Q1 2026 from N164.58 billion in Q1 2025, representing an increase of approximately 9.9%. The performance signals gradual improvement in risk underwriting, premium generation, and broader market penetration.

The NBS in its report stated:   “The Finance and Insurance Sector consists of the two subsectors, Financial Institutions, and Insurance, in which the former accounted for 90.62% and the latter 9.38% of the sector, respectively in real terms in Q1 2026.  

“The sector grew at 46.91% in nominal terms (year-on-year), with the growth rate of Financial Institutions at 46.71% and 48.80% growth rate recorded for Insurance. The overall rate was higher than Q1 2025 by 25.89% points, and higher by 20.33% points than the preceding quarter.  

“The quarter-on quarter growth was 18.86%. The sector’s contribution to the nominal GDP was 3.83% in Q1 2026, higher than the 3.07% it represented a year previous, and higher than the contribution of 2.91% it made in the preceding quarter.  

“Growth in this sector in real terms totaled 8.54%, lower by 6.49% points from the rate recorded in the 2025 first quarter and higher by 0.24% points from the rate recorded in the preceding quarter.  

“Quarter-on-quarter, growth in real terms stood at 17.77%. The contribution of Finance and Insurance to real GDP totalled 3.76%, higher than the contribution of 3.60% recorded in the first quarter of 2025 by 0.16% points, and higher than 2.56% recorded in Q4 2025 by 1.20% points.”

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Credit to government surges 65.6% to N39.6trn

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CBN act

•As currency outside banks drops 12% to N5.08tr

By Babajide Komolafe & Elizabeth Adegbesan

Credit to the government rose by 65.6 per cent year-on-year, YoY, to N39.6 trillion in April 2026 from N23.9 trillion in April 2025, driven by increased borrowing to finance the 2026 budget deficit.

The Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, disclosed this in its latest Money and Credit Statistics.

    

Under the Appropriation Act 2026, the Federal Government plans to borrow N29.2 trillion, to fund the gap between the   revenue of N68.32 trillion and expenditure of N36.87 trillion.

Vanguard analysis showed that   the Federal Government increased borrowing from domestic investors by 7.4 per cent to N8.1 trillion in   the first quarter of 2026 from   N7.5 trillion in the same period of 2025.

The CBN data also showed that credit to the private sector rose by 3.25 per cent to N80.6 trillion in April 2026 from N78.06 trillion in April 2025.

Consequently, net domestic credit rose by 17.8 per cent to N120.2 trillion in April 2026 from N102 trillion in the corresponding period last year.

Following the same trend, Nigeria’s broad money supply (M2) increased by 4.8 per cent YoY to N124.98 trillion in April 2026 from N119.2 trillion recorded in April 2025, reflecting improved liquidity in the financial system.

Further breakdown of the money supply components showed that   currency outside banks declined by 12.2 per cent to N5.08 trillion in April 2026 from N5.7 trillion in the corresponding period of 2025, indicating increased use of banking channels and electronic payment systems.

However, demand deposits (current accounts)   increased by 6.3 per cent to N38.7 trillion from N36.4 trillion during the review period.

Also quasi-money   increased by 3.8 per cent to N81.2 trillion in April 2026 from N78.2 trillion in April 2025. Quasi money includes money in savings accounts, time deposits, treasury bills and other money market instruments.    

Narrow money, which includes currency in circulation and current accounts,   also grew by 7.09 per cent to N43.8 trillion from N40.9 trillion. 

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Maritime lawyers seeks stronger legal framework for NSW 

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Sustaining Maritime Sector: Capacity building and knowledge transfer in Africa

By Godwin Oritse

The Nigerian Maritime Law Association, NMLA, has called for a robust legal and regulatory framework to ensure the successful implementation of the National Single Window, NSW, project in Nigeria.

According to the association, the National Single Window initiative of the Federal Government is designed to improve operational efficiency through faster cargo clearance processes, greater transparency in regulatory procedures, and enhanced coordination among government agencies involved in maritime trade and port operations.

Speaking at the 4th Breakfast meeting of the NMLA,    Mr. Mike Igbokwe, Senior Advocate of Nigeria, SAN, who is also President of the group said that the   initiative represents a major shift towards the digitalisation of processes within the maritime sector and is expected to promote ease of doing business, reduce bottlenecks at the ports, and strengthen Nigeria’s trade competitiveness.

Speaking on the theme of the meeting, “Regulatory Reforms and the National Single Window (NSW) Project,” Igbokwe noted that Nigeria’s maritime sector is characterised by the involvement of multiple regulatory agencies with overlapping responsibilities, resulting in duplication of functions, efforts and costs.

He further observed that the traditional processes within the sector remain fragmented and largely manual, leading to delays in cargo clearance, increased cost of doing business, rising inflation, and higher prices of imported raw materials and manufactured goods.

He said: “NSW will be of benefit to members of NMLA as maritime lawyers and IT experts as there    will be a need to update regulatory frameworks, data governance and cybersecurity considerations, contractual and liability adjustments in trade transactions and   greater reliance on electronic records and systems.”

“Nigeria does not lack good regulatory frameworks but usually lacks the political will and determination for implementing, monitoring and supervising the legislation.

“The National Single Window Project represents a transformative regulatory reform capable of modernizing Nigeria’s trade and maritime sector. If effectively implemented, it can significantly improve efficiency, transparency, revenue generation, and ease of doing business.

“However, its success will depend not only on technology, but also on strong political will, institutional cooperation, legal reforms, and sustained stakeholder engagement.”

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