On 21 August, the new Premier League season will begin. Reigning champions Arsenal will host newly promoted Coventry City on Friday night, before the other 18 teams play across the rest of the weekend, ending with a West London Derby between Fulham and Chelsea on Monday.

It feels like only yesterday that Bournemouth held Manchester City to a 1-1 draw, thus handing a league title to the Gunners for the first time since 2004, but Mikel Arteta’s men will soon have to defend their crown. The aforementioned Man City will be desperate to win it back under new boss Enzo Maresca, while the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United will also hope to challenge at the top of the table.

New boys Coventry will be joined by Hull City and Ipswich Town as the three teams to earn promotion last season. They’ll be doing all they can to avoid dropping back down into the Championship.

As ever, there is so much on the line, and it’s impossible to know exactly how things will play out. Despite that, the boffins at Opta have had their Supercomputer run 10,000 simulations of the 2026/27 Premier League season and the results as facinating.

Premier League Relegation Odds

It will come as no surprise to see that the three promoted teams are the most likely to go down again. Opta’s simulation saw Hull City relegated more times than any other Premier League club. They finished sixth in the Championship last term but came up as a bit of a surprise package via the play-offs. Sadly, that suggests they might struggle, as they were relegated 38.7% of the time by the supercomputer.

Coventry are the only other team to go down with more than a 30% frequency, while Ipswich follow as the next most likely relegation candidates at 27.9%​​​​​. It’s quite interesting that Sunderland are fourth on the list, as they came seventh last season, exceeding all expectations.

The Black Cats are seemingly expected to suffer second-season syndrome, but the likes of Fulham, Leeds United and Crystal Palace must also be wary, as they were all relegated at least 20% of the time across the simulations​​​​. The good news for neutrals is that it certainly looks as though it has the potential to be a tight relegation scrap at the bottom end of the table in 2026/27

Premier League Winners

Reuters/Matthew Childs

The good news for Arsenal fans is that their side are overwhelming favourites to win back-to-back league titles. Arteta’s men were able to lift the Premier League 38.0% of the time across the 10,000 simulations.

The Gunners are perhaps aided by the numerous manager changes for their rivals this summer. With Enzo Maresca taking over from Pep Guardiola at Man City, Andoni Iraola from Arne Slot at Liverpool, and Xabi Alonso landing the vacant Chelsea job, it’s understandably hard to have any great certainty about how those three might get on this term.

Even Michael Carrick at Manchester United and Roberto De Zerbi at Tottenham Hotspur arrived in 2026, with the former only made permanent this summer. Aston Villa’s Unai Emery has been around since 2022, and his consistency with the club has them outside title challenges at 4.8%

With all that said, however, only Man City (20.5%) seem to be viewed as strong enough to make it a two-horse race, as no other club won the league more than 10% of the time across the supercomputer simulations. Having finished 17th last term, two points above the drop, some may consider Spurs (2.9%) fortunate to even be in the conversation.

Champions League Qualification

REUTERS

Opta’s simulation also worked out which teams are most likely to secure Champions League qualification. The coefficient now means a fifth-place finish is likely good enough for an English team to make Europe’s premier cup competition, so each team’s odds of finishing in the top four and top five have been listed

Interestingly, Spurs are actually behind Newcastle United here, despite having slightly better hopes of winning the league. The likes of Arsenal and Man City were able to make the top four over 60% of the time, suggesting they will have no issues securing Champions League football again next time.

Liverpool only just about sealed a fifth-place finish last term but have been backed to do so more comfortably in 2026/27. Man Utd fans might be frustrated to see the supercomputer drop them into fourth, having finished third last season.

Aston Villa won the Europa League and finished fourth last season, as they pulled off Champions League qualification via two routes. Chelsea, however, didn’t secure European football as they came 10th. Without midweek fixtures, they might find it easier to impress domestically.

As mentioned before, Newcastle are given slightly better chances than Spurs, but it could be close. Finally, Brighton and Bournemouth are also said to be in with a shout as the two south coast teams continue to impress.

Data via Opta – as of 14/08/26

Rangers have suffered a major transfer blow on Friday morning after their move to sign Couhaib Driouech collapsed following the player’s medical.

Rangers manager Derek McInnes has been looking to add to his squad following a disappointing start to the season, which has seen them take only one point from their opening Scottish Premiership matches and get knocked out of the Europa League at the qualifying stage by Jagiellonia Białystok.

The Glasgow giants had agreed a deal to sign PSV winger Driouech, who had travelled to Scotland to undergo a medical, but the club has now pulled out of a deal following issues flagged up in his medical.

The agreement with the Dutch club was worth £6.5m, with the winger due to sign a four-year deal at Ibrox, but now Gers will have to look elsewhere after pulling the plug on the deal as McInnes looks to add more flair and quality to his attack.

Driouech was even present at the game on Thursday night as Rangers were eliminated from the Europa League following their 1-1 draw with Jagiellonia Białystok.

But McInnes has decided he can’t afford to have a player not available immediately, especially after a disappointing beginning to his reign, according to Rangers Review.

The former Hearts boss suggested post-match that his team aren’t ready to compete in the Europa League this season.

He said: “I do think we’re lacking a cutting edge.

“Obviously, losing Youssef doesn’t help matters. We are looking at a No.9 position as well in terms of trying to get somebody in.

“Because I think a club like Rangers, a team like Rangers, certainly my team, is something that we’d like to try and address.”

Rangers Advancing on Two Other Transfers

via Reuters

While there has been disappointment over a move for Driouech, Rangers are advancing on two other deals to boost McInnes’ squad.

Rangers Review add that Rangers are closing in on a deal to bring AEK Athens full-back James Penrice back to Scotland, with GMS sources confirming that it will be a loan deal with a €2m buy option for the 27-year-old.

The Scot will provide cover following an injury issue suffered by Tuur Rommens, while the Ibrox outfit are also closing in on an agreement to find a replacement for another injured player in Youssef Chermiti.

Rangers are also advancing on a deal to sign Kevin Kelsy, who plays for the Portland Timbers and the Venezuela national team.

They are said to have submitted an offer worth around £7.5m for the 6ft 4in centre-forward, who looks to be an ideal profile to replace Chermiti.

Arsenal have opened talks with Bayer Leverkusen over a deal to sign England defender Jarrel Quansah.

The Gunners are keen to bolster their defensive options this summer after losing William Saliba to a back injury, with the France star unlikely to return before the end of the year. Arteta has already added Illan Meslier, Christos Tzolis, and Bruno Guimaraes to his Premier League-winning squad, but a defender is now believed to be among his top priorities.

The club have been in talks with Aston Villa over a move to sign Ezri Konsa, with an initial offer rejected earlier in the window, but it now seems that they are looking at alternative options too.

According to Sky Sports News, Arsenal are in talks with Bundesliga outfit Leverkusen over a deal for Konsa’s England teammate Quansah to come to the Emirates Stadium this summer.

The defender, who can play at right-back or centre-back, only moved to Germany last summer from Liverpool in a deal worth £35m. The Anfield club retain a buy-back option in the deal, but GIVEMESPORT sources understand they have no intention of triggering it at this stage.

Speaking live on air, host Peter Graves revealed the details behind the Gunners’ interest in Quansah.

“Some exclusive transfer news just reaching us, Arsenal are in talks with Bayer Leverkusen over a possible deal for England defender Jarrel Quansah,” he said.

“Mikel Arteta is keen to add to his defensive options and sees Quansah as a good addition with his versatility in both centre-back and right-back positions.”

The 23-year-old, who has been described as ‘incredible’, enjoyed a fine debut season in the Bundesliga, making 39 appearances across the league and Champions League, which earned him a place in Thomas Tuchel’s World Cup squad. He started three games in the tournament, but most notably was sent off against Mexico for a lunge.

Tuchel Loves Quansah

Having come through the academy at Liverpool, Quansah has developed into a bona fide first-team player at Leverkusen and England, appearing regularly in squads under Tuchel.

The England boss even had him above Trent Alexander-Arnold at right-back, while he has played centrally on occasion too. Speaking prior to the World Cup, Tuchel explained why he’s such a fan of the 23-year-old.

“I have a lot of trust in Jarell. I see his talent, but I see the package.

“And he plays every minute for [Bayer] Leverkusen since the Under-21 Euros. So he is at the moment a tiny bit ahead [of Alexander-Arnold].”

Statistics courtesy of WhoScored – correct as of 14/08/2026.