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MIDDLE EAST CRISIS: IMF cuts growth forecast for Nigeria’s economy to 4.1% 

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•Cites, higher fuel, fertiliser prices, increased shipping costs

By Babajide Komolafe, Economy Editor

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its growth forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth to 4.1 percent in 2026,  citing higher fuel, fertilizer prices and increased shipping costs triggered by the impact of the ongoing Middle East crisis. 

The latest forecast for Nigeria represents 0.3 percentage point lower than the 4.4 per cent earlier projected in January by the IMF. 

The downgrade was contained in the April 2026 edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, released on the sidelines of the ongoing IMF/ World Bank 2026 Spring Meetings in Washington DC.  

The report showed that Nigeria’s growth projection reflects mounting global uncertainties and external shocks triggered by the crisis. 

While the Nigerian economy is still expected to maintain moderate expansion, the IMF warned that rising costs of goods, transportation, and imported inputs could weigh on output. The IMF also cut its global growth forecast, projecting world output to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 from 3.4 percent in 2025, as the war-induced disruptions dampen economic momentum across regions.

Speaking at the launch of the report Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that across sub-Saharan Africa, growth projections had been downgraded as the impact of cutting of aids to the region is compounded by the impact of the war. 

“In Sub-Saharan Africa, we are seeing, broadly, a downgrade in growth and rising inflation in a number of countries in the region. The impact is largely in line with global trends. For many countries, especially energy importers, the situation is challenging, although there are also energy exporters in the region, so the impact varies.” He stated.

For Nigeria, Division Chief, Research Department, at the IMF, Deniz Igan noted that for Nigeria, “growth has been revised down by 0.3 percentage points to 4.1% in 2026. This reflects two opposing forces. On one hand, higher fuel and fertilizer prices and increased shipping costs are expected to weigh on non-oil activity.

“On the other hand, higher oil prices provide some offset. Overall, the balance is negative for growth in 2026, with some recovery expected in 2027.” 

She noted that “maintaining tight monetary policy, remaining data-dependent, and closely monitoring exchange rate movements and inflation expectations will be crucial to achieving the inflation target.

“In spite of the gains from the current high oil prices triggered by the war in the Middle East, Nigeria’s growth projections have been revised downwards by 0.3 per cent to 4.1 per cent in 2026 by the International Monetary Fund.

On sub-Saharan Africa, Igan noted that 2025 was relatively strong for the region. “Before the war, global growth was resilient, oil prices were strong, and external financial conditions were supportive. This helped countries in the region.

“However, with the war, global growth has slowed, non-oil commodity prices have softened, and terms of trade have worsened for oil importers. This creates variation in impact across the region. In addition, Sub-Saharan Africa is facing significant headwinds from declining foreign aid. Bilateral aid cuts range from 16% to 28% in 2025, and we expect this trend to continue.

“In terms of impact, growth has been downgraded by 0.4 percentage points cumulatively for 2026 and 2027. At the same time, median inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise from 3.4% in 2025 to 5%. This reflects high oil and fertilizer prices, potential fuel shortages, and rising borrowing costs. Fertilizer prices are a particular concern due to the region’s dependence on agriculture and existing food insecurity.

The post MIDDLE EAST CRISIS: IMF cuts growth forecast for Nigeria’s economy to 4.1%  appeared first on Vanguard News.

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FG moves to accelerate mini-grid deployment with new guidelines

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By Obas Esiedesa, Abuja

The Federal Government has unveiled new guidelines for the safe and efficient interconnection of solar mini-grids to electricity distribution networks, aimed at accelerating renewable energy deployment and improving electricity access across Nigeria.

Speaking at the launch in Abuja, the Managing Director of the Nigerian Electricity Management Services Agency (NEMSA) and Chief Electrical Officer of the Federation, Engr. Olusegun Adesayo, described the document as “a major milestone in Nigeria’s drive towards achieving a safe, reliable, sustainable and inclusive electricity supply industry.”

According to him, solar mini-grids have emerged as a critical solution for electrifying unserved and underserved communities, making clear operational standards necessary.

“The Guidelines provide comprehensive procedures, technical requirements, interconnection models and operational standards for integrating solar mini-grids into distribution networks without compromising grid stability, power quality, system reliability and public safety.

“The Guidelines seek to reduce uncertainties for investors and developers while strengthening collaboration among Distribution Companies, mini-grid developers, regulators and other stakeholders,” he said..

Adesayo added that the framework aligns with the provisions of the Electricity Act 2023, the Mini-Grid Regulations 2026 and relevant national and international standards, including IEC standards.

Also speaking, Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Power, Alhaji Mahmuda Mamman, represented by the Director of Distribution, Mustapha Abba, said renewable energy, particularly solar mini-grids, plays a strategic role in expanding electricity access, improving energy security and promoting sustainable economic growth.

“As this segment of the electricity market continues to grow, it becomes imperative to establish clear technical and operational frameworks that will ensure safety, reliability and efficient coordination between solar mini-grid systems and existing distribution infrastructure,” he said.

“The Guidelines being launched today provide an important framework for ensuring the safe, reliable and efficient interconnection of solar mini-grids to distribution networks across Nigeria.”

Mamman said the guidelines would strengthen investor confidence, reduce technical and regulatory uncertainties, improve system reliability and support the sustainable integration of renewable energy solutions into Nigeria’s electricity network.

Representing the Delegation of the European Union to Nigeria and ECOWAS, Programme Manager, Energy and Circular Economy, Mr. Godfrey Ogbemudia, said: “The launch of these Guidelines is particularly significant. We are confident that the Guidelines will provide consistency and increase investor confidence in interconnected mini-grid projects.”

He reaffirmed the European Union’s commitment to supporting Nigeria’s energy transition and electrification ambitions, while Head of Development Cooperation at the German Embassy, Dr. Karin Jansen, said Germany remains committed to supporting Nigeria’s efforts to expand energy access, strengthen institutions and mobilise private investment in renewable energy.

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NGX Group advocates stronger capital market integration into monetary policy framework

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By Peter Egwuatu 

Group Managing Director/CEO, Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group), Temi Popoola, has urged the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to treat capital market development as a macroeconomic necessity, arguing that the effectiveness of monetary policy increasingly depends on the depth, liquidity, and coherence of Nigeria’s financial markets.

Popoola made this call in a presentation delivered during a session at the CBN   Monetary Policy Committee, MPC workshop themed: “Structure and Behaviour of Nigeria’s Equity and Government Debt Markets: Implications for Monetary Policy Effectiveness.”

Represented by Jumoke Olaniyan, Group Chief Strategy Officer, NGX Group Popoola, noted that    monetary policy decisions travel through market architecture before reaching households and businesses, and weak market structures can dilute policy effectiveness regardless of the stance adopted by the MPC.

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Nigeria spends $2.34bn on food imports in 2025, down 7.4%

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Nigeria spends $2.34bn on food imports in 2025, down 7.4%

•Food import share shrinks as total imports jump 28%

By Babajide Komolafe

Nigeria’s spending on food imports declined by 7.4 per cent, year-on-year to $2.34 billion in 2025, signaling a moderation in the country’s dependence on imported food products despite a  sharp increase in overall import expenditure. Data on food imports obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, quarterly statistical bulletin, fourth quarter 2025. Q4’25  showed that food imports fell to $2.343 billion in 2025 from $2.530 billion recorded in 2024, representing a decline of $186.42 million of 7.4 per cent year-on-year.

The decline comes  after food import spending had risen by 18.8 per cent, YoY to $2.53 billion in 2024 from $2.129 billion in 2023, indicating a reversal of the upward trend witnessed in the previous year.

Further analysis revealed that food imports accounted for a smaller share of the nation’s total import bill in 2025. The ratio of food imports to total imports dropped significantly to 11.8 per cent in 2025 from 16.3 per cent in 2024.

The decline in food import share occurred despite relatively stable food import spending, largely because overall imports grew at a much faster pace during the review period.

According to CBN data,  Nigeria’s total imports rose by 28 per cent, YoY  to $19.897 billion in 2025 from $15.544 billion in 2024, representing an increase of $4.353 billion. This followed an earlier rise from $14.276 billion recorded in 2023.

Analysis  of quarterly food import spending indicated that three of the four quarters in 2025 recorded lower import values compared to corresponding periods in 2024.

Food imports declined by 20.3 per cent, YoY to $550.09 million in Q1’25 from $689.88 million in Q1’24. In Q2 ’25, food import spending dropped by 6.0 per cent, YoY to $515.04 million from $547.70 million in Q2’24.

However, Q3’35 recorded the only year-on-year increase during the year, with food imports rising by 3.2 per cent, YoY to $653.85 million from $633.63 million in Q3’24.

The upward movement was short-lived as food import spending fell again in Q4 ’25 by 5.2 per cent, YoY  to $624.36 million from $658.55 million in Q4’24.

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